South Korean consumer confidence holds above neutral for eighth month

South Korean consumer sentiment held well above the neutral level in December for eight consecutive months, supporting household confidence. 

The latest signs indicate that consumer sentiment remains broadly positive regarding the economic outlook, even as prices continue to rise and financial markets become jittery. 

And while inflation has increased the price of goods and services on a day-to-day basis, and fluctuations in the equity market have added to the pressure on the growth trend, they have not been large enough to alter the overall optimism significantly. 

The overall consumer sentiment index hit 109.9 in December, according to the Bank of Korea’s report on Wednesday. That was a 2.5 point decrease from November’s eight-year high, but well above a neutral 100, which helps demarcate optimism from pessimism. 

At this metric, consumer sentiment is strong enough to provide robust support for durable growth in consumer spending, and with it, working hours and wages. 

Here, the point is that optimism moderation was coupled with a widening range of consumer prices and greater currency volatility. Those measures have somewhat subdued household sentiment, but in general, confidence is stronger than in past eras of economic uncertainty.

Rising prices and currency swings weigh on confidence

Inflation remained a problem for households as they approached the end of last year, despite the continued rise in costs of food, utilities, and services. These price pressures “partially dampened” some of the optimism experienced in November, when confidence peaked at its highest level in eight years, the Bank of Korea said. 

The slight decrease was the result of higher consumer prices and a greater exchange rate volatility, the central bank added. Still, exports have been broadly resilient this year, bolstered by strong semiconductor shipments. That’s despite higher US tariffs on Korean goods that have impacted Seoul’s second-largest export market. Importantly, the fall in confidence was modest. 

The index remained well above the neutral range, suggesting that households were still broadly optimistic about their income outlook, labour market conditions, and future spending, even though they may be more cautious of short-term risks. 

Strong exports and housing optimism support the outlook

Sentiment was also reflected in external demand, with exports performing relatively well for the year overall. Strong chip sales have also proved to be a significant boost, helping South Korea cope with poor performance elsewhere, which has continued to be marked by global trade uncertainty.

Even with the United States slapping tariffs on some Korean goods, which have put the brake on shipments to Seoul’s second-largest export market, that resilience has been on. Elsewhere, robust demand for advanced chips has supported the impact and helped underpin overall export momentum. 

This consumer sentiment strength has been reflected in the Bank of Korea’s economic forecasts. In November, it revised its growth forecast for this year to 1% and for the future to 1.8%, due to sustained domestic consumption and export support from abroad. 

Housing expectations were also a significant factor in shaping consumer sentiment. A sub-index measuring expectations for home prices rose for a second-straight month, up 2 points to 121. In parts of Greater Seoul, this includes prices for apartments, which have also climbed, although at a slower pace. 

The index of consumer expectations regarding household debt, meanwhile, remained steady at 96 for the second consecutive month. This persistence suggests that concerns over borrowing have not increased, despite house prices remaining stable. 

The Bank of Korea stated that there are still risks to the economy, including a weak Korean won and high home prices in Seoul, which are likely to persist. The central bank stated that those factors could impact financial stability. Keeping consumer confidence above the neutral level for an eighth consecutive month suggests that households continue to have greater expectations for the future as 2026 begins, it added.

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