A Higher Bar for Risk: Gimme Credit Examines Indonesia’s Shifting Market Narrative

NEW YORK, Jan. 31, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Gimme Credit this week released a new Indonesia Country Report, assessing whether recent equity market volatility could spill over into foreign exchange and bond markets and warrant a higher risk premium for credit investors.

The report follows a sharp selloff in Indonesian equities, driven by concerns over data transparency, governance standards, and policy optics under the new administration. While pressures have so far been concentrated in equities, Gimme Credit highlights a broader macro backdrop that widens the distribution of outcomes, including governance-related confidence risks, early policy signals affecting market sentiment, and scrutiny of Indonesia’s medium-term fiscal trajectory.

Gimme Credit notes that equities have been the initial pressure point, with foreign investors repricing confidence risk rather than fundamentals following commentary from MSCI on data quality and transparency, alongside broader macro-financial concerns flagged by global banks.

At the issuer level, the report focuses on two Indonesian USD issuers. Gimme Credit maintains a cautious but constructive view on Garuda Indonesia, noting that improving working-capital discipline should partially offset margin and currency pressures, even as capex normalizes at a higher level. While free cash flow remains thin, the firm believes Garuda can still generate enough cash to support the balance sheet. Against this backdrop, valuations on the 2031 bonds remain attractive. With yields around 8% and a ~419bp z-spread, pricing is viewed as adequately compensating investors for the wider dispersion of risks, supporting an Outperform rating.

Gimme Credit takes a more defensive view on Indofood CBP, reflecting its stable consumer staples profile and resilient leverage metrics. With net leverage expected to remain around 1.0x and yields above 5% on the 2051 bonds, the firm also maintains an Outperform rating.

Bond Details

• Garuda Indonesia: US$508 million 6.5% due 2031
• Indofood CBP: US$600 million 4.745% due 2051

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Gimme Credit provides independent corporate bond research and data to aid investors and traders with critical and timely insights into an organization’s investment potential. Since 1994, customers have relied on our decisive buy/sell recommendations to provide in-depth guidance when determining which fixed-income securities offer the most opportunity. Gimme Credit’s clients include brokerage firms, corporations, financial advisors, investment managers and traders. Company research and news are regularly featured in such esteemed media as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, FT and more.

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SOURCE Gimme Credit