Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Chart Warns of Major Crash Before Next Rally

Bitcoin continues to trade near the mid-$74,000 region after a steady climb during the past month. The latest structure shows strength on higher timeframes, though a widely shared chart now raises an uncomfortable question for bulls. The analysis indicates that the current Bitcoin cycle may still face a large correction before the next major rally begins.

BTC has gained ground during the past several weeks, climbing roughly 7.66% across the last 30 days. Price moved from the high $60,000 region to the mid $70,000 range. Yet long-term cycle analysis sometimes tells a different story from short-term momentum. 

A chart shared by Crypto Patel presents a scenario where the BTC price could still experience a sharp drawdown before eventually reaching a new all-time high near $200,000.

The historical pattern that cannot be ignored

Crypto Patel’s weekly chart stretches back to 2018 and shows the three major cycles that have defined Bitcoin’s market structure. Each cycle followed a similar pattern. A powerful Wave 3 rally to new highs, followed by a brutal correction before the final leg upward.

The first cycle peaked near $19,666 in late 2017 before crashing 84% to $3,122 in 2018. The second cycle saw the BTC price climb to $69,000 in late 2021 before correcting 77% to $15,479 in 2022. In both cases, the correction after Wave 3 wiped out the majority of gains before the next bull run began.

The current cycle shows the BTC price reaching $126,272 at its peak. If history repeats, a similar correction could be coming. A 77% decline from the all-time high would put the BTC price near $32,000. This is the scenario that has traders watching closely.

The max pain zone: Where BTC could land

Crypto Patel does not believe the worst-case scenario will play out. His calculations indicate that the zone of $40,000 to $50,000 represents the area in which the “max pain” rebound may occur. It also represents an area in the prior structure, but it would be a significant drop from the present levels.

The chart clearly illustrates the extent to which the asset has corrected in the past, including the 84% correction in 2018, as well as the 77% correction in 2022, both of which occurred after the peaks in the third waves of the prior cycles.

The asset has already corrected from the high of $126,272, but it has not done so in the same way as prior cycles.

If it were to drop to $40,000, it would be equivalent to a 68% correction from the all-time high, while if it were to drop to $50,000, it would be equivalent to a 60% correction. Both of these corrections would be severe, but they would not be as severe as the 77% to 84% corrections that occurred in the prior cycles.

What this means for the BTC price

There is not an imminent crash on the horizon, but if we examine the past, we find that a sizable correction is likely before the rally towards the $200k milestone begins anew. If it were to rise above $126,272 without a correction beforehand, the current structure is negated.

Important levels to consider: $60,000 as a caution level, $40,000 to $50,000 as the pain level, and $32,000 as the full historical correction level. CoinCodex’s 1-month BTC price prediction is $79,813, showing that we may only see a minor increase from today’s value of around $74,000, as long as the market maintains these key levels.