Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis: Whale Activity Surges as Token Struggles Below $0.25

Key Takeaways

• Cardano is struggling to maintain levels above $0.25 following an unsuccessful rebound effort, with selling pressure persisting throughout the week.
• Derivatives market open interest contracted by approximately 8% over a 24-hour period, accompanied by $701,830 in long position liquidations.
• The open interest-weighted funding rate shifted into negative territory at -0.0132%, indicating short position preference among traders.
• Major holder wallets containing over 10 million ADA tokens climbed to 424, marking a four-month peak and representing a 5% increase over nine weeks.
• Critical price support level identified at $0.2328, while the 50-day exponential moving average presents resistance at $0.2681.

Cardano (ADA) faces continued selling pressure this week, remaining stuck below the $0.25 threshold amid widespread cryptocurrency market turbulence. An early-week attempt at recovery quickly faded, pushing the token back into negative territory.

Early in the week, ADA managed to push toward $0.2546, registering a 5.42% intraday increase alongside a dramatic surge in trading activity that exceeded 100%, bringing volume to $515.84 million. Unfortunately, this upward movement proved short-lived.

Market observer Alpha Crypto Signal identified a falling wedge breakout on the 4-hour timeframe, with ADA successfully reclaiming its descending resistance line and near-term moving averages. According to the analyst, sustained momentum could drive prices toward the $0.27–$0.29 range, though inability to defend the breakout zone risks invalidating the bullish pattern.

Futures Market Data Reflects Near-Term Pessimism

Derivatives metrics from CoinGlass reveal that ADA futures open interest declined by roughly 8% to reach $401.35 million during the past day. Combined liquidations totaled $1.10 million, with long traders absorbing the majority at $701,830.

The funding rate metric weighted by open interest has fallen to -0.0132%, indicating that market participants are willing to pay for maintaining short exposure. This dynamic reflects prevailing bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.

Market analyst UniChartz emphasized the $0.23–$0.24 price range as a critical demand zone, observing that this region has previously catalyzed significant rallies. Should buyers successfully protect this floor, the initial resistance target stands at $0.45.

Major Holders Increase Positions to Multi-Month Peak

Blockchain analytics from Santiment demonstrate that addresses holding more than 10 million Cardano tokens have expanded to 424, representing the highest count in four months. This reflects growth exceeding 5% throughout the previous nine-week period.

Such accumulation activity during price weakness typically suggests institutional or high-net-worth investors anticipate future appreciation over extended timeframes.

The Relative Strength Index currently hovers near 44, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has edged into positive territory close to the baseline. These technical indicators point toward tentative stabilization without confirming a definitive trend change.

Near-term price support rests at $0.2328, corresponding to the March 29 bottom. A violation of this floor could expose the February 5 low at $0.2205. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-day exponential moving average positioned at $0.2681 would open the path toward $0.2992.

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