Bitcoin S2F Model Says BTC Price Is Headed To $500,000, Here’s When

Bitcoin could be on track for a massive long-term rally if one of the most interesting valuation models in the crypto industry is still valid. According to pseudonymous analyst PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model suggests that Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving cycle between 2024 and 2028. 

The bold projection comes even as Bitcoin is showing no signs of trading at that level in recent days, but recent price action in the past 24 hours has seen it reclaiming the $70,000 price level.

Here’s When Bitcoin Will Reach $500,000

PlanB’s projection for Bitcoin is not that the cryptocurrency’s price action instantly jumps to $50,000, but that the entire post-halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around that level if the Stock-to-Flow framework continues to play out as predicted. That is a much more aggressive call than simply predicting a cycle top, because an average of $500,000 would imply that Bitcoin would eventually spend meaningful time well above that price level at some stage of the cycle. 

The current Bitcoin price setup is a test of whether the leading cryptocurrency is deeply undervalued at today’s levels or whether the S2F model has finally broken down for good.

The chart attached to PlanB’s technical analysis helps explain this prediction of a $500,000 price tag for Bitcoin. It overlays Bitcoin’s price history with the 200-week moving average, realized cost price, RSI coloring, and a staircase-like Stock-to-Flow path. The dotted S2F path for the 2024-2028 halving window rises to around $500,000 in 2027.

Bitcoin S2F Model. Source: Plan B On X

What’s Going On With Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has spent the past week swinging between recovery and pressure, a stretch that saw the asset trade above $73,000 on March 5 before falling back toward the mid-$60,000s and then rebounding again above $70,000 at the time of writing. That uncertain context of price action is what makes PlanB’s latest Stock-to-Flow price prediction stand out, because it takes strong conviction to predict an average price of $500,000 for Bitcoin. 

The recent price action places Bitcoin just above two long-watched structural supports: the realized cost price and the 200-week moving average. Both of these supports are also visible in PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model chart shared above. That does not automatically prove a six-figure or seven-figure breakout is next, but it does support the view that the entire cycle structure has not fully collapsed.

As it stands, about 43% of Bitcoin addresses are holding at a loss, with the majority being short-term holders and Bitcoin treasury firms. However, many analysts have proposed that Bitcoin’s correction is yet to find a bottom, despite it being down by over 45% from its October 2025 peak.