VanEck Base Case Sees Bitcoin Hitting $3M by 2050

Asset manager VanEck has released a long-term outlook projecting that Bitcoin could reach a price of $3 million by 2050.

Notably, VanEck’s projection is grounded in the gradual, structural adoption of Bitcoin across global financial markets. The firm emphasizes that its assumptions are moderate, span several decades, and are rooted in evolving institutional use rather than market hype.

Key Points

• VanEck projects Bitcoin price to hit $3 million by 2050
• The forecast assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate 
• Bitcoin could handle 5–10% of global trade by 2050 
• Central banks may allocate 2.5% of reserves to Bitcoin

Long-Term Growth Underpins the Price Target

VanEck’s model assumes Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual rate of 15% over the next 25 years. While ambitious, the firm considers this growth rate achievable given increasing institutional integration.

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, explained in a recent interview that the forecast hinges on Bitcoin becoming a recognized reserve asset. Under this framework, Bitcoin would gain long-term strategic relevance within the global financial system.

That reserve-asset thesis is closely tied to Bitcoin’s potential role in international trade settlement. VanEck’s research assumes Bitcoin could facilitate 5% to 10% of global trade transactions by 2050.

Additionally, the model anticipates Bitcoin may settle approximately 5% of domestic transactions worldwide. To put the scale into context, the British pound currently accounts for roughly 7.4% of international payments.

Central Bank Adoption Strengthens the Case

Beyond trade, VanEck’s outlook also hinges on changes in central bank reserve strategies. The firm projects that central banks could allocate around 2.5% of their reserves to Bitcoin over time.

This shift could materialize amid growing concerns over sovereign debt and long-term monetary stability. In its research note, VanEck positions Bitcoin as a long-duration hedge against potential systemic risks in traditional monetary frameworks.

Scenario Modeling Highlights a Wide Range of Outcomes

To account for uncertainty, VanEck constructed three adoption scenarios, each reflecting different economic and institutional trajectories.

Specifically, in the bear case scenario, Bitcoin reaches $130,000 by 2050, assuming an annual growth rate of approximately 2%.

Meanwhile, the base case, aligned with VanEck’s central assumptions, places Bitcoin at $2.9 million, assuming a 15% annual growth rate.

Conversely, the bull case envisions Bitcoin rising to $53.4 million, contingent on it achieving reserve-asset status comparable to that of gold. Notably, Bitcoin is currently trading near $90,000.

Portfolio Implications for Long-Term Investors

Based on this outlook, VanEck recommends allocating 1% to 3% of a diversified portfolio to Bitcoin. The firm’s historical modeling indicates that a 3% Bitcoin allocation within a traditional 60/40 portfolio delivered the strongest risk-adjusted returns.

Despite the bullish headline, VanEck’s latest projection represents a more measured stance compared to earlier assumptions. For instance, in December 2024, the firm modeled Bitcoin growth at 25% annually. The revised 15% growth estimate reflects a more conservative methodology while maintaining confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term strategic relevance.

Ultimately, VanEck continues to frame Bitcoin as a strategic portfolio asset rather than a speculative trading vehicle. The firm argues that avoiding Bitcoin exposure entirely may present greater long-term risk than managing price volatility.

This philosophy underpins both its price forecast and portfolio guidance, as outlined in its research paper, Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions.