The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has snapped under the pressure of the Iran conflict, according to a note to investors by JPMorgan. While geopolitThe correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has snapped under the pressure of the Iran conflict, according to a note to investors by JPMorgan. While geopolit

JPMorgan Flags Sharp Divergence Between Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows Since Iran War

2026/03/13 18:52
4 min read
For feedback or concerns regarding this content, please contact us at crypto.news@mexc.com

The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has snapped under the pressure of the Iran conflict, according to a note to investors by JPMorgan.

While geopolitical instability usually drives a unified bid for safe havens, the two assets are currently moving in opposite directions.

This decoupling reveals a significant shift in how capital is treating “digital gold” versus the real thing.

Instead of moving in tandem as crisis hedges, investors are aggressively rotating capital, creating a clear winner in the ETF market since late February.

Discover: The best crypto to buy now

What the JPMorgan ETF Flow Data Actually Shows About Bitcoin

Since the conflict escalated on Feb. 27, JPMorgan analysts report a stark divergence in capital flows. The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has bled outflows totaling roughly 2.7% of its assets under management.

In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed inflows equaling roughly 1.5% of its assets during the same window.

JPMorgan analysts, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighted in their recent note to investors that this reverses the trend seen earlier in the year when gold funds held the advantage.

The data is unambiguous. While gold has traditionally been the default safety trade during Middle East tensions, capital is currently voting for Bitcoin exposure.

Institutional positioning generally reflects a shift away from bullion in favor of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, despite the higher volatility inherent in crypto assets.

Interestingly, IBIT inflows since the start of 2024 are now roughly double the total accumulation seen by GLD, further cementing the shift in dominance among exchange-traded products.

Is Bitcoin Replacing Gold as the Crisis Hedge?

The divergence goes deeper than headline flows. JPMorgan notes that while spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing inflows, institutional derivatives markets paint a more cautious picture. Hedge funds appear to be reducing direct Bitcoin exposure even as ETF buyers step up.

Short interest in IBIT has actually increased since the conflict began, while GLD short interest declined. This narrows the gap between the two, suggesting that hedge funds are hedging their crypto bets while favoring gold for pure defensive positioning.

This creates a complex market structure. Retail and registered investment advisors (RIAs) are likely driving the ETF bid, treating Bitcoin as a risk-off asset alongside the dollar. Meanwhile, sophisticated desks are hedging downside risk as oil surges past $100, a macro factor that typically pressures risk assets.

Options activity supports this cautious institutional stance. The demand for downside protection in Bitcoin has risen, contrasting with the relentless buying pressure in the spot ETF market. However, the sheer magnitude of the rotation, selling gold to buy Bitcoin, suggests the “digital gold” narrative is holding up under fire better than skeptics anticipated.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hold the $70,000 Level?

Price action remains resilient despite the mixed signals from derivatives markets. Even with war-driven inflation fears dominating the headlines, Bitcoin is trading above $70,000, showing strength where legacy assets have faltered.

JPMorgan Flags Sharp Divergence Between Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows Since Iran WarSource: TradingView

Bull Scenario: If ETF inflows persist at this 1.5% pace, Bitcoin targets the $80,000 resistance band. Clearing that level opens the path to retest all-time highs. JPMorgan’s own valuation models have previously flagged Bitcoin as undervalued relative to gold regarding volatility-adjusted capital, suggesting room for an upside squeeze.

Bear Scenario: Should macro liquidity tighten further, support sits firm at $64,000. A break below this level would validate the rising short interest and likely force a flush of the recent leverage. Traders must watch the $70,000 midpoint closely; losing it would signal that the safe-haven bid has exhausted itself.

The next major catalyst isn’t just on the chart; it’s at the Federal Reserve. If oil prices stay high, inflationary pressure could force central banks to keep rates elevated longer, testing the resilience of both gold and Bitcoin.

Discover: The next crypto to explode

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact crypto.news@mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

WLFI Technical Analysis Mar 27

WLFI Technical Analysis Mar 27

The post WLFI Technical Analysis Mar 27 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. WLFI, while approaching critical support regions in the downtrend, continues to give
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/03/27 13:35
Virunga Gorilla Twins Boost Conservation Outlook

Virunga Gorilla Twins Boost Conservation Outlook

The Virunga gorilla twins signal renewed momentum for conservation-driven economic growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.   Rare conservation milestone
Share
Furtherafrica2026/03/27 13:00
USDH Power Struggle Ignites Stablecoin “Bidding Wars” Across DeFi: Bloomberg

USDH Power Struggle Ignites Stablecoin “Bidding Wars” Across DeFi: Bloomberg

A heated contest for control over a new dollar-pegged token has set the stage for what analysts say could define the next phase of the stablecoin industry. According to Bloomberg, a bidding war unfolded on Hyperliquid, one of crypto’s fastest-growing trading platforms, with the prize being the right to issue USDH, its native stablecoin. The competition drew some of the sector’s most prominent names, including Paxos, Sky, and Ethena, who later withdrew their bid, alongside the lesser-known Native Markets, a startup backed by Stripe stablecoin subsidiary Bridge. Hyperliquid Stablecoin Race Shows Branding and Partnerships Matter as Much as Tech Over the weekend, Hyperliquid’s validators, the contributors who secure the network and vote on key decisions, awarded the USDH contract to Native Markets over the weekend. Despite its relatively new status, the firm’s connection with Stripe helped it outpace more established rivals. Stablecoins underpin decentralized finance by providing a dollar-backed medium for collateral, settlement, and payments across applications. What began as a grassroots, community-led sector has evolved into a battleground for institutions and payment companies seeking revenue from interest on reserves. Circle, for example, shares proceeds from its USDC with Coinbase under a partnership designed to stabilize earnings during market swings. The Hyperliquid contest offered a rare glimpse into just how intense competition has become. Paxos pledged to take no revenue until USDH surpassed $1 billion in circulation. Agora offered to share 100% of net revenue with Hyperliquid, while Ethena put forward 95%. All were outbid by Native Markets, whose ties to Stripe’s $1.1 billion acquisition of Bridge and subsequent rollout of the Tempo blockchain positioned it as a strong contender. “Every stablecoin issuer is extremely desperate for supply,” said Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of Split Capital. “They are willing to publicly announce how much they are willing to offer. It just shows it’s a very tough business for stablecoin issuers.” While USDC remains dominant on Hyperliquid with more than $5.6 billion in deposits, the arrival of USDH could shift flows and revenue dynamics. Paxos co-founder Bhau Kotecha said the firm sees the exchange’s growth as an important opportunity, while Agora’s co-founder Nick van Eck warned that awarding the contract to a vertically integrated issuer risked undermining decentralization. Regulatory positioning also factored into the debate. Paxos operates under a New York trust charter and is seeking a federal license, while Bridge holds money transmitter approvals in 30 states. Native Markets, in a blog post, cited regulatory flexibility and deployment speed as reasons for its selection. Hyperliquid said the strong engagement from its community validated the process. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire dismissed concerns over USDC’s status, noting on X that competition benefits the ecosystem. Analysts suggested that fears of centralization may be exaggerated, noting that Hyperliquid is likely to remain neutral and support multiple stablecoins. Still, the contest over USDH highlighted a new reality for stablecoins: branding, partnerships, and business strategy are becoming as decisive as technology. Native Markets Secures USDH Stablecoin Mandate on Hyperliquid Hyperliquid has concluded its governance vote for the USDH stablecoin, awarding the mandate to Native Markets after a closely watched process that drew weeks of community debate and rival proposals. USDH, described by Hyperliquid as a “Hyperliquid-first, compliant, and natively minted” dollar-backed token, is intended to reduce the platform’s dependence on USDC and strengthen its spot markets. Validators on the decentralized exchange voted in favor of Native Markets, a relatively new player backed by Stripe’s Bridge subsidiary, over established contenders including Paxos and Ethena. The outcome followed a string of proposals offering aggressive revenue-sharing terms to win validator support, underscoring the scale of incentives attached to controlling USDH. Hyperliquid’s exchange has become a critical hub for stablecoin liquidity, with $5.7 billion in USDC, around 8% of its total supply, currently held on the network. At prevailing treasury yields, that translates to an estimated $200 million to $220 million in annual revenue for Circle, underlining why a native alternative could be transformative. Hyperliquid’s validators, who secure the network and vote on key decisions, selected Native Markets following an on-chain governance process that concluded September 15. Native Markets has laid out a phased rollout for USDH, beginning with capped minting and redemption trials before expanding into spot markets. Its reserves will be managed in cash and treasuries by BlackRock, with on-chain tokenization through Superstate and Bridge. Yield from those reserves will be split between Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund and ecosystem development. The launch of USDH comes as Hyperliquid records record profits from perpetual futures trading, with $106 million in revenue in August alone, and prepares to slash spot trading fees by 80% to bolster liquidity. Analysts say the move positions Hyperliquid to capture more of the stablecoin economics internally, marking a significant step in its bid to rival the largest players in decentralized finance
Share
CryptoNews2025/09/18 00:48