Why is The Crypto Market Going Down Today?

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The global cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.9 trillion, down 0.41% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin trades around $114,477, showing little change but struggling to build momentum. Ethereum is at $4,148, down slightly, while XRP trades at $2.83. Most of the top altcoins are in the red, with Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin posting small declines.

The U.S. Government Shutdown Factor

The main pressure point today comes from Washington. The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown with betting markets giving it an 86% probability. Political gridlock over budget approvals has unsettled investors, creating risk-off behavior across financial markets, including crypto.

Historically, shutdowns have limited direct economic impact. Essential services like the military and air traffic control continue, but uncertainty often drives short-term volatility. Analysts expect headlines to dominate the next 48 hours, pushing both Bitcoin and altcoins into sharp intraday swings.

End of Month and Quarter Closes

The timing adds further stress. Markets are closing out both the monthly and quarterly cycles, which often brings increased volatility. September has a history of weakness for Bitcoin and crypto markets, and this year has followed the same pattern.

Still, seasonal data shows that October and November are usually stronger months. Bitcoin has averaged a 19% gain in October and a 43% gain in November in past cycles. Bulls argue that today’s pullback could set the stage for a Q4 rebound if seasonal trends hold.

Liquidations and Trading Flows

Data shows nearly $300–400 million in liquidations in the last two days, mostly from leveraged short positions. Exchange volumes remain lower than earlier in the year, a sign that big buyers are sitting on the sidelines until political risk clears.

Altcoins are mixed. Solana and BNB have seen some inflows tied to activity on decentralized exchanges, while XRP remains heavily traded following ETF speculation earlier this month.