The stablecoin market is undergoing a transformation following the crash: a massive migration of billions of dollars as funds move away from leverage and embrace real returns.
Author: Frank, PANews The market crash on October 11 not only broke through the price defenses of crypto assets, but also triggered a massive migration of billions of dollars in the stablecoin sector. Data shows that since October, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has shrunk from $308.7 billion to $302.8 billion, with nearly $6 billion leaving the market. In this ebb tide, the leading compliant stablecoin, USDC, was hit hardest, with its supply on the Solana chain experiencing a precipitous drop. Meanwhile, USDe, previously a rising star in stablecoins, also saw a significant decrease in issuance due to the liquidation of revolving loan leverage. However, this is not simply a capital flight, but a brutal competition. When we peel back the layers of the data, we find that this is a shift from "speculation" to "rationality." Capital is flowing from the high-leverage on-chain gaming arena to safe havens with stronger compliance, smoother fiat currency channels, and real RWA returns. The "double whammy" of the Solana ecosystem and USDC In this wave of market capitalization decline, USDC has become the biggest "bleeding point." Data shows that USDC accounted for half of the nearly $6 billion outflow, with its total market capitalization falling from $76.3 billion to $73.5 billion, a decrease of $2.8 billion. The decline in USDC is mainly due to a 18.24% decrease in USDC issuance on the Solana chain over the past month. On October 11, the total amount of USDC issued on the Solana chain was approximately $12.8 billion, but by November 23, it had dropped to $8.7 billion, a reduction of 4.1 billion USDC. During the same period, the total value of funds (TVL) on the Solana chain also decreased from $12.9 billion to $8.79 billion, a drop similar to that of USDC's supply. Top-ranked DeFi protocols on Solana also experienced significant declines in TVL during this phase. From this perspective, after the market crash on October 11th, a large amount of capital on the Solana chain chose to directly redeem stablecoins to mitigate market risk. Taking Pump.fun as an example, according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, in the past week, the Pump.fun project team transferred 405 million USDC to Kraken. Then, during the same period, 466 million USDC were transferred from Kraken to Circle, which likely represents a withdrawal. This money came from Pump.fun's private sale of PUMPs to institutional investors in June. However, Pump.fun co-founder Sapijiju responded, stating, "This is completely false information; Pump.fun has never cashed out," and that this was simply a fund management operation. Solana wasn't the only one experiencing a liquidity crisis. Hyperliquid, known for its highly leveraged derivatives trading, also saw its stablecoin issuance drop from $6 billion to $4.4 billion, a 25% decrease. This comprehensive contraction directly impacted Circle's performance on the US stock market. Hit by both poor revenue expectations and a sharp decline in USDC supply, Circle's stock price plummeted from a high of $240 to below its IPO price, falling to $71.3. The once-promising "compliant stablecoin unicorn" myth seems to be facing its first crisis since its IPO. USDe Crisis and Sui's Stablecoin Data Gaffe If the decline of USDC is a cyclical deleveraging, then the crisis of USDe exposes the structural vulnerability of algorithmic stablecoins in a bear market. Since October 10th, the supply of USDe has halved from $14.6 billion to $7.38 billion, and its price on Binance briefly de-pegged to $0.65 due to a short-term lack of liquidity. The main reason for this de-pegging was the mass withdrawal of liquidity providers from centralized exchanges during the panic, resulting in extremely thin order books. Meanwhile, although USDe's official redemption mechanism functioned normally, its off-exchange settlement process had a delay of several hours. This delay prevented arbitrageurs from quickly profiting during the brief flash crash, thus failing to pull the discount on the CEX back to the $1 peg, amplifying the de-pegging magnitude. The sharp drop in issuance was actually due to the market crash causing a dramatic fall in funding rates for perpetual contracts, even turning negative. This rendered the "revolving loan" leverage strategy, widely deployed on lending platforms like Aave and Morpho, economically unsustainable. With yields below borrowing costs, traders were forced to deleverage and liquidate positions on a massive scale, leading to a contraction in USDe supply. Afterwards, OKX CEO Star stated on the X platform: "USDe should not be viewed as a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar; it is a tokenized hedge fund." Even though Ethena set a record high of $151 million in fees captured in Q3 of this year, it couldn't withstand the loss of market confidence caused by the sharp decline in yields. While USDe yields have now rebounded to above 5%, overall supply and trading volume are both declining. Amidst extreme market anxiety and a thirst for the next growth driver, a data blunder involving the Sui blockchain became an unexpected incident. On November 24th, Artemis data showed that the stablecoin supply on the Sui chain had increased by $2.4 billion. Social media users speculated that this might indicate certain institutions or "smart money" were actively deploying assets on the Sui chain. Even the official Sui team engaged in the discussion, replying with "stablesmaxxing" (stablecoin maxed out). However, PANews' investigation revealed that this may have been a misunderstanding. After careful comparison of multiple data dashboards, USDC is indeed the most issued stablecoin on Sui, with a current market capitalization of approximately $480 million. Other stablecoins on Sui have issuances in the tens of millions of dollars. According to Defillama data, the current total supply of stablecoins in the Sui ecosystem is approximately $653 million. If $2.5 billion were to flow in or be issued in a single day, it would mean that the stablecoin supply on Sui would increase by about four times. On-chain information also shows that the issuance of USDC on Sui is $482 million, with the largest holding address being the Binance exchange, holding approximately 148 million coins. Subsequently, Artemis updated this data, showing that the stablecoin supply on Sui has increased by $117 million in the past seven days. A new direction for risk aversion: embracing returns. After funds are withdrawn from high-risk areas, they do not disappear completely, but flow to safer and more functional assets. During the market downturn, USDT once again proved its dominance as the top stablecoin, with its total market capitalization not only remaining unaffected but also repeatedly breaking new records, reaching $184.7 billion. In contrast to the decline of USDC, other compliant stablecoins have seen significant growth. Since the market crash on October 11, the issuance of PYUSD has bucked the trend, increasing from $2.5 billion to $3.6 billion, a growth of nearly 50%. Among public blockchains, PYUSD's growth is mainly attributed to the growth of the Ethereum mainnet, which has increased by 57% in the past month. Data released by Token Terminal on November 9th shows that PYUSD has become one of the fastest-growing tokenized assets with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion. Compared to other stablecoins, PYUSD's core advantages likely lie in its convenient fiat currency exchange channels and relatively stable yield. PYUSD previously maintained an APY of over 10% on the Solana blockchain through subsidized yields. Furthermore, PYUSD's compliance is also a key factor considered by many institutional investors. Furthermore, the issuance of USYC, another yield-generating stablecoin issued by Circle, has also increased by 45% in the past month, with a total issuance increase of approximately $500 million. This indicates that during periods of market turmoil, institutional investors are no longer satisfied with holding zero-interest cash or willing to take on the high risks of DeFi, but instead prefer the stable returns of RWA tokens pegged to US Treasury bonds. Data from RWA.xyz also shows that the recent issuance of RWA assets has not been affected by the market downturn and continues to grow steadily. It increased by 10%, from $33 billion on October 11th to $36 billion. A period of market turmoil has served as a litmus test for the stablecoin market. It has not only allowed the market to distinguish which stablecoins are primarily used for high-leverage trading and which are used as investment targets for large institutions, but it also reflects that the crypto market has officially bid farewell to the "wild west" era of solely relying on on-chain leverage to drive growth. Conversely, the counter-trend breakout of PYUSD and the steady growth of RWA assets prove that funds are starting to vote with their feet. In turbulent times, more convenient fiat currency channels, more transparent compliance backing, and real returns based on US Treasury bonds are the core competitive advantages for retaining funds. The outflow of $6 billion may offer us a glimpse into the next phase of the stablecoin war. It's no longer a race to print money, but a contest of scenarios, trust, and the quality of underlying assets. For issuers, the only ticket to the next bull market will be evolving from "fuel" for on-chain speculation to a "bridge" in financial and trade processes.