PA Daily | BitMEX co-founder predicts BTC may bottom out at $70,000; JPMorgan Chase raises the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%

Today's news tips:

Deutsche Börse’s Clearstream to Provide BTC and ETH Custody Services

JPMorgan Chase raises chance of U.S. recession to 40%

VanEck Registers Avalanche ETF in Delaware

Former Coinbase CTO: MAGA policies attempt to quickly cut off imports, close institutions and withdraw from wars, which may cause the US dollar to lose its international status

The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" warns that the economic engines of the United States, Germany and Japan are in trouble: it is recommended to invest in gold, BTC, etc.

Upbit will launch Arkham (ARKM) Korean Won trading pairs

Memecoin KOL Murad's investment portfolio has shrunk by more than 80% in the past two months, falling to less than $10 million

Black Monday in US stocks: Nasdaq plunges 4% and Tesla falls 15%

Regulatory/Macro

Deutsche Börse’s Clearstream to Provide BTC and ETH Custody Services

Clearstream, the post-trading division of Deutsche Börse, announced that it will provide cryptocurrency settlement and custody services to institutional clients later this year. This marks another major European financial institution accelerating its layout in the field of digital assets. Clearstream plans to provide Bitcoin and Ethereum related services to 2,500 customers starting next month through its holding subsidiary Crypto Finance as a sub-custodian. In the future, Clearstream also plans to support more cryptocurrencies and launch a number of features including pledge, lending and brokerage services.

JPMorgan Chase raises chance of U.S. recession to 40%

Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase raised the risk of a U.S. recession this year to 40% from 30% at the beginning of 2025. "We believe the risk of a U.S. recession this year is high due to extreme U.S. policies," analysts wrote. Earlier, it was reported that Morgan Stanley economists lowered their U.S. economic growth forecasts and raised their inflation forecasts last week. The bank predicts that U.S. GDP growth will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a 12-month recession from 15% to 20%.

VanEck Registers Avalanche ETF in Delaware

According to Delaware company registration information, VanEck registered the "VanEck Avalanche ETF" on March 10, 2025. The company type is Statutory Trust and the registered agent is CSC Delaware Trust Company.

El Salvador and Paraguay Sign Cryptocurrency Regulatory Agreement

According to CoinDesk, El Salvador has reached a cooperation agreement with Paraguay on cryptocurrency regulation. This is the second international crypto regulatory agreement signed by the country in three months. It has previously reached a similar agreement with Argentina. The agreement was signed by Paraguayan anti-money laundering agency SEPRELAD and the National Digital Asset Commission of El Salvador (CNAD) last Friday, aiming to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in crypto industry regulation, unauthorized crypto business detection, and anti-money laundering compliance. It is worth noting that the Central Bank of Paraguay has previously stated that cryptocurrencies are not authorized by it, reminding the public to be cautious in interacting with non-regulated entities. The agreement may mean that Paraguay is considering learning from El Salvador's single digital asset regulatory system.

Black Monday in US stocks: Nasdaq plunges 4% and Tesla falls 15%

Due to negative sentiments such as concerns about the US economic recession, US stocks fell sharply on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially closing down 2%, the S&P 500 down 2.7%, and the Nasdaq down 4%. Tesla (TSLA.O) plummeted 15.4%, Apple (AAPL.O) fell nearly 5%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 5%. Among blockchain concept stocks, Hut 8 fell 15.03%, Canaan Inc. (CAN.O) fell 14.17%, MicroStrategy (MSTR.O) fell 16.68%, and Coinbase (COIN.O) fell 17.58%.

Viewpoint

Former Coinbase CTO: MAGA policies attempt to quickly cut off imports, close institutions and withdraw from wars, which may cause the US dollar to lose its international status

Balaji Srinivasan, former chief technology officer of Coinbase, pointed out in a social media post that MAGA (Make America Great Again) has four major misunderstandings that may cede global dominance to China. He believes that MAGA mistakenly attributes the US economic recession to competition itself rather than lack of competitiveness; blames the problem on global leadership itself rather than bad leadership; overreacts to "hostile forces" at home and abroad; and fails to realize that the dollar hegemony depends on the global influence of the United States. Balaji pointed out that MAGA attempts to quickly cut off imports, close institutions, and withdraw from wars, but these actions may weaken the foundation of the US global empire, ultimately causing the dollar to lose its international status and bring serious consequences to the United States and its allies. He emphasized that the root of the problem lies in the lack of competitiveness of American products and the lack of leadership, not globalization itself.

The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" warns that the economic engines of the United States, Germany and Japan are in trouble: it is recommended to invest in gold, BTC, etc.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, posted on social media that the current "full bubble" is bursting and may cause the biggest crash in history, even exceeding the Great Depression of 1929. He believes that the economic engines of the United States, Germany and Japan are in trouble and blames the problem on the wrong decisions of the leadership. Kiyosaki called on investors to remain calm, not panic, and see the current situation as an opportunity to buy high-quality assets. He said he will continue to invest in "discounted" real assets such as real estate, gold, silver and Bitcoin, reminding investors to look for opportunities in chaos.

Analysis: Excessive long yen positions may provide support for Bitcoin and Nasdaq

CFTC data shows that excessive long positions in the yen may trigger a pullback, providing short-term support for Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the stretching of speculative positions and bargain-hunting behavior of Japanese investors may slow the appreciation of the yen. Historically, similar situations have driven a rebound in risky assets. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,300, down nearly 5% this month, and the dollar was trading at 147.23 against the yen, hitting a five-month low of 145.53 earlier. Although there is hope for short-term relief, the long-term bullish trend of the yen remains, and we need to be wary of market fluctuations.

Arthur Hayes: BTC may bottom out at $70,000, waiting for central bank easing before reinvesting

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, tweeted that Bitcoin (BTC) may bottom out around $70,000, which is equivalent to a 36% correction from the historical high of $110,000, which is a normal adjustment in the bull market. He believes that the next step is to pay attention to the plunge of US stocks (SPX, NDX) and the bankruptcy of traditional financial (TradFi) institutions, and then the Federal Reserve (Fed), the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may adopt loose policies to stimulate the economy. Hayes recommends that traders wait patiently. If the risk appetite is high, they can try to buy the bottom; if they are more stable, they should wait for the central bank's policy to turn around before re-positioning to avoid the psychological pressure caused by long-term sideways trading or potential floating losses.

Project News

Bubblemaps to conduct TGE on Binance Wallet

Binance Wallet announced that it will hold a token generation event (TGE) for the on-chain data visualization platform Bubblemaps (BMT) on PancakeSwap from 16:00 to 18:59 Beijing time on March 11. According to previous news, Bubblemaps will launch the platform token BMT on March 11.

Upbit will launch Arkham (ARKM) Korean Won trading pairs

According to the Upbit announcement, Arkham (ARKM) will be listed on the Korean Won (KRW) trading market at 16:00 (Korean time) on March 11.

Binance will support Kadena (KDA) network upgrade and hard fork, and suspend deposits and withdrawals on March 17

According to the Binance announcement, the Kadena (KDA) network will be upgraded and hard forked at 00:00 (UTC) on March 18, 2025, and Binance will support this upgrade. • Deposit and withdrawal suspension time: 23:00 (UTC) on March 17, 2025 • Upgrade and hard fork block height: 5,659,280 (estimated at 00:00 UTC on March 18, 2025) Binance will reopen KDA deposits and withdrawals after the network upgrade is completed and stabilized, and trading will not be affected.

Offchain Labs says it will repurchase ARB tokens as planned

According to the announcement of Offchain Labs, the company has launched a strategic purchase plan and will increase its holdings of ARB in the open market and other trading methods to strengthen its long-term commitment to the Arbitrum ecosystem. The plan will be implemented step by step according to preset parameters.

Bithumb launches Elixir (ELX) Korean Won trading market

According to Bithumb’s announcement, Elixir (ELX) will be listed on the Korean Won (KRW) trading market today (March 11).

Important data

A whale sold $12.2 million of SOL at an average price of $112.3, losing $7.48 million

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale user sold 108,688 SOL at $112.3 in exchange for $12.2 million USDC, which was almost close to the lowest price of the day. It is reported that these SOL were withdrawn from Coinbase 11 months ago when the price was $181. This transaction caused the user to lose about $7.48 million.

ARKM rose nearly 50% in a short period of time and is now trading at $0.7

The market data shows that due to the impact of Upbit's launch of the Arkham (ARKM) Korean won trading market, the price of ARKM rose by nearly 50% in a short period of time and is currently around US$0.7.

Memecoin KOL Murad's investment portfolio has shrunk by more than 80% in the past two months, falling to less than $10 million

According to the Arkham dashboard data, Memecoin KOL Murad's crypto asset portfolio has shrunk significantly in the past month, from about $54 million on January 18 to the current $9.7 million, with a floating loss of more than 80% in less than two months. The price of its main holding, SPX, fell from a high of $1.52 to $0.288, a drop of more than 80%. In addition, holdings of GIGA, RETARDIO, MOG and MEMDEX also fell sharply. Its marked address has not had transactions exceeding $10,000 in the past month.

The whale lost $32 million and sold 25,800 ETH to avoid liquidation

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale sold 25,800 ETH (about 47.8 million US dollars) to avoid liquidation, and lost more than 32 million US dollars in this transaction. Currently, the whale still holds 35,034 ETH (about 64.68 million US dollars) on Aave, with a health rate of 1.4 and the latest liquidation price of 1,316 US dollars.

BTC falls below $77,000, down 3.80% on the day

The OKX market data shows that BTC has just fallen below $77,000 and is currently trading at $76,996.10 per coin, down 3.80% on the day.

Solana transaction fees fall to lowest level since September 2024, on-chain activity drops sharply

According to The Block, the total transaction fees generated by the Solana network last week were only 53,800 SOL, the lowest level since September 2024, down 10% from the previous week. Of this, 77% of the fees came from "acceleration fees" (Jito tip fees) paid by users to validators, which has dropped significantly from the peak of $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins (the fourth week of January). The 7-day average (7DMA) of active addresses on the Solana chain also fell 35% during the same period, causing the price of SOL to fall by about 50% since January 20. In addition, the "graduation" rate of tokens on the Pump.fun platform in the Solana ecosystem (migrating from Pump.fun to Raydium DEX) has dropped to 0.89%/day, far lower than 1.6%/day in January.