2026 will force African tech to grow up

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Thanks for reading The Next Wave this year.

Your engagement hasn’t just been a metric because it has shaped these conversations every Sunday. I want to specifically thank my co-writers Adonijah Ndege, Frank Eleanya and Muktar Oladunmade. They are the intellectual muscle behind these stories and the ones who help me find the signal in the noise.

As we look toward 2026, the tech ecosystem on the continent is finally shedding its skin. We are moving past the era of easy capital and vanity metrics into a period of hard institutionalisation. 2026 will be the year when regulators stop observing and start actively rewiring the digital economy.

And while most analysts predict a simple funding recovery, here is what we think people are missing.

First, the standalone fintech app is becoming a relic, so success in 2026 will belong to the invisible companies building the plumbing for non-tech sectors like agriculture and logistics.

We also expect the hype around AI to hit a wall. Without massive local investment in power and data centres, Africa risks becoming a mere consumer of foreign tools rather than a creator.

Finally, the big exit might be a myth because we expect to see more local consolidation where African giants acquire each other to survive because the global buyers are looking elsewhere.

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This final edition looks back at our top five pieces that resonated most with you.

This piece traced Safaricom’s evolution from a telecom operator to the backbone of Kenya’s financial system. M-PESA is so large now that the company handles anti-money laundering and fraud detection like a traditional bank even though that was never the original plan.

2. A founder’s personal assets as collateral for failure

We looked at the startup ecosystem in China and how redemption rights can leave founders personally liable for failed ventures. When homes and savings can be seized, the stakes of entrepreneurship change completely. This serves as a sobering warning for the African venture landscape.

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This essay focused on Nigeria’s informal transport sector. Moving fare payments from cash to digital platforms could bring transparency to millions of journeys and create a massive new market for payment providers.

4. Kenyan government services turning into pay-to-access schemes

We examined concerns around Kenya’s eCitizen platform. The core argument was that charging premium fees for faster public services risks creating a tiered system where essential rights are locked behind a paywall.

5. Realising regional expansion for African startups

This edition explained why moving across borders is the hardest task for any founder. Using Twiga Foods as an example, we explored why scaling requires a deep and often painful understanding of local regulations and customer habits.

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The Future of Commerce Report: Beyond the First wave is TechCabal Insights’ annual report, launched at Moonshot by TechCabal in October 2025.

Africa’s next wave of innovation isn’t in payments or marketplaces—it’s in the “X Areas”: the overlooked, unglamorous back-office challenges holding millions of businesses back.

This report reveals where investment and innovation are heading next and what it means for founders, investors, and policymakers shaping Africa’s trade backbone.

Downloand the report here!

Thank you for reading, replying and sharing this year. We will be back on 10 January 2026.

Happy holidays!

Kenn Abuya

Senior Reporter, TechCabal

Thank you for reading this far. Feel free to email kenn[at]bigcabal.com, with your thoughts about this edition of NextWave. Or just click reply to share your thoughts and feedback.

As always feel free to email a reply or response to this essay. I enjoy reading those emails a lot.

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