Relief Pump Tests Downtrend As Buyers Chase Short Covering

• KAITO breaks above short-term support, but the broader downtrend remains intact.
• Intraday spike shows signs of short covering rather than sustained accumulation.
• Heavy resistance near $0.62–$0.67 could cap the rally if momentum fades.

KAITO price today trades near $0.61 after a sharp intraday surge that pushed the token more than 25% higher within hours. The move follows a prolonged downtrend and places buyers and sellers in a tight standoff as price presses into overhead resistance left by months of distribution.

Sellers Lose Grip As Short Term Momentum Flips

The daily chart shows KAITO breaking higher from the lower boundary of a descending channel that has guided price lower since October. The bounce originated near the $0.49 to $0.50 base, a zone that has repeatedly attracted dip buyers over the past month.

Price is now trading above the 20-day EMA near $0.56 and the Supertrend level around $0.43, signaling that short-term control has shifted back to buyers. However, the larger trend remains intact. The 50-day EMA near $0.67 and the 100-day EMA near $0.83 continue to slope lower, forming a thick resistance band above current levels.

Until KAITO can reclaim at least the 50-day EMA on a daily close, the move remains a relief rally inside a bearish structure rather than a confirmed reversal.

Intraday Spike Shows Aggressive Short Covering

Lower timeframes reveal the nature of the move more clearly. On the one-hour chart, KAITO printed a near-vertical candle from the $0.50 area to highs above $0.64, followed by immediate consolidation near $0.60.

RSI surged above 80 during the breakout before cooling back toward the mid-60s. That behavior typically reflects forced short covering rather than steady accumulation. Parabolic SAR flipped decisively bullish during the spike, but price is now hovering near its short-term flip zone.

This type of price action often marks exhaustion if follow-through fails. Buyers who chased the breakout are now dependent on continued momentum to avoid a fast retracement.

Relief Pump Meets Heavy Overhead Supply

From a structure standpoint, KAITO is now testing the underside of prior support turned resistance. The $0.62 to $0.67 region marks the breakdown area from late November and aligns closely with the falling 50-day EMA.

Repeated failures in this zone would signal that sellers are still defending rallies and using strength to exit positions. A rejection here would likely send price back toward the $0.55 area, with deeper support sitting near $0.50.

The broader EMA alignment reinforces that risk. With the 100-day EMA near $0.83 and the 200-day EMA above $1.00, the long-term trend remains decisively bearish. Any upside move must fight through multiple layers of supply.

Community Sentiment Remains Tactical, Not Conviction Driven

Sentiment around KAITO has turned active but cautious. Traders widely describe the move as a Coinbase-driven pump rather than a fundamental repricing. The prevailing strategy discussed across social channels emphasizes selling relief rallies, taking fast profits, and waiting for dips rather than chasing breakouts.

That tone reflects recent ecosystem frustration. Several Kaito Kickstarter-backed projects saw sharp post-TGE valuation drawdowns in December, reinforcing skepticism toward sustained upside. While the platform has rolled out leaderboard upgrades focused on on-chain identity checks and stricter reputation thresholds, the market response has been muted so far.

These changes may improve long-term credibility, but they have not yet translated into consistent demand for the token itself.

Outlook. Will KAITO Go Up?

KAITO is at a decision point.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $0.67 with expanding volume would confirm acceptance above the 50-day EMA and open the door toward $0.75 and $0.83. That would mark the first structural improvement since October.
• Bearish case: Failure to hold $0.58 followed by a move back below $0.55 would signal that the rally was purely a relief pump. Losing $0.50 would place KAITO back into full trend continuation toward the lower channel base.

For now, the bounce has shifted momentum but not the trend. Until key resistance breaks, sellers still control the bigger picture.