K33 Crypto Briefing: BTC indicators weaken, the market may be on the eve of a change

By Brian McGleenon

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

Report Overview

• Bitcoin remains in a state of low volatility, and risk-averse traders are pushing down yields, volumes and futures premiums. However, K33 Research said this situation generally does not last long.

• Analyst Vetle Lunde pointed out that although the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration is a positive factor in the long run, current market uncertainty still exists and traders should remain cautious until a clear direction emerges.

Bitcoin's low volatility continues

Bitcoin remains in low volatility, posting a modest 2% weekly loss, according to K33 Research. Risk-averse traders have pushed returns, volatility and trading volumes down to multi-month lows.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, noted that while the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration is good news for Bitcoin and the industry as a whole in the long run, short-term uncertainty is suppressing market activity.

“Bitcoin metrics are weakening across the board, including volume, yields, options premiums, ETF flows, all returning to levels not seen before the election,” Lunde said in a note Tuesday. “Amid this depressed state, volatility has fallen to multi-month lows.”

Lunde stressed that 37% of the top 100 companies in the U.S. stock market currently have higher monthly volatility than Bitcoin, a level not seen since October 2023. However, he went on to urge that such periods of low volatility generally do not last long and traders should be prepared for sudden changes.

He added: "Overall risk aversion suggests traders are ready for downside volatility, while current modest leverage levels suggest a low potential threat of cascading liquidations."

CME Bitcoin futures hint at imminent market turnaround

Lunde's analysis of CME Bitcoin futures shows that the recent futures premium has fallen below 5%, which is rare. Looking back at the data from 2021 to 2025, low premiums usually occur at the same time as weak market performance. This situation may be affected by the long bear market in 2022.

In futures trading, basis refers to the price difference between futures and spot of the same asset. When futures prices are higher than spot prices, there is a premium, which usually means bullish market sentiment; when futures prices are lower than spot prices (discount), it indicates a bearish trend.

He reiterated that Bitcoin tends to perform best when the basis is strong, and urged the market to remain cautious amid the current uncertainty.