OSL Trading Time: $7.8 billion in options are about to expire, and the BTC long-short game intensifies

1. Market observation

Keywords: DeepSeek, ETH, BTC

The cryptocurrency market has been very dynamic recently. The Ethereum Foundation launched its first DeFi program and transferred $165 million of ETH to a multi-signature wallet. Institutional participation continues to increase, and listed companies such as Tesla, MicroStrategy and Coinbase have become major buyers of Bitcoin. It is worth noting that Grayscale and CoinShares have submitted regulatory documents to launch ETFs tracking XRP, Litecoin and Solana, while Nasdaq has also applied to the SEC to allow physical transfers of the iShares Bitcoin Trust. Although the Trump administration is investigating the possibility of establishing a national digital asset reserve, the price of Bitcoin is still consolidating around $105,264. Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad", once again emphasized that Bitcoin is better than the US dollar, calling the former "good money" and the latter "bad money."

Market data shows that whale accounts have accumulated 200,000 BTC in the past month, which may indicate a new round of gains. Especially considering that $7.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire at the end of this month, market volatility may increase. At the same time, as large investors acquire $3.7 billion in ETH, the market generally believes that Ethereum's breakthrough of $7,000 is "inevitable." MicroStrategy continues to execute its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, and its co-founder Michael Saylor has released the 12th Bitcoin tracking report. It is worth mentioning that former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) revealed that he first bought Bitcoin in early 2014 when the price was about $600.

It is worth noting that there have been new breakthroughs in the field of science and technology. AI company DeepSeek has aroused heated discussions on the Internet with its excellent performance and successfully topped the free APP download rankings in the US region of Apple. However, US technology stocks performed weakly, and the semiconductor sector generally fell in the night trading. Among them, industry leader Nvidia fell more than 5%, TSMC fell nearly 5%, Broadcom fell more than 3%, and AMD fell nearly 2%, which may have a chain reaction on the cryptocurrency market.

In terms of market expectations, analysts predict that Ethereum could rise 378% against Bitcoin. The survey showed that 47.8% of respondents expect BTC to continue to rise this week, while 49.3% expect the XRP ETF to be approved first. At the same time, crypto investment company Paradigm called on Ethereum to speed up its update cycle to remain competitive. As Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000, the scope of application of cryptocurrencies is also expanding. Russia's largest energy supplier Rosseti and Brazil's national oil company have both announced that they will start Bitcoin mining operations. Despite the short-term pullback, the overall market outlook remains optimistic.

2. Key data (as of 09:34 HKT on January 24)

• S&P 500: 6,101.24 (+3.73% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,954.30 (+3.33% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.591% (+1.0 basis point this year)

• US dollar index: 107.645 (-0.77% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $101,692 (+8.69% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $27.033 billion

• Ethereum: $3,193.44 (-4.42% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $19.219 billion

3. ETF flows (January 24 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$518 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$9.18 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will be closed from January 28 to February 4

The Federal Reserve FOMC announces its interest rate decision (January 30, 3:00)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (January 30, 3:30)

ECB announces interest rate decision (January 30, 21:15)

Initial quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP of the United States (January 30, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 3.10% / Expected: 2.70%

U.S. personal consumption expenditure PCE annualized quarterly preliminary value (January 30, 21:30 p.m.)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 3.70% / Expected: 3.10%

U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in December (January 31, 21:30 p.m.)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 2.80% / Expected: Not shown

5. Hot News

This week's preview | Abstract mainnet launches; Sui (SUI) will unlock tokens worth more than $260 million

Russia's Largest Energy Supplier Rosseti to Start Crypto Mining Business

DeepSeek surpasses ChatGPT and tops Apple's free APP download rankings in the United States

CZ revealed that he first bought Bitcoin in early 2014 when the price was around $600

Jupiter announces it has destroyed 3 billion JUP tokens

Data: SUI, OP, TRIBL and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking, among which SUI unlocking value is about 265 million US dollars

Jupiter: 50% of the protocol fees will be used to buy back JUP

Petrobras to mine Bitcoin as part of R&D project, research tokenization applications

THORChain: Launches a 90-day restructuring plan, suspends THORFi lending and savings redemption

Pudgy Penguins CEO: Abstract mainnet will be launched on Monday

Breaking Bad actor Dean Norris’ X account was hijacked again to promote fake tokens

Virtuals Lianchuang: Plans to launch Solana platform in the first week of February, exploring the use of 50% cbBTC in proxy wallets as a source of liquidity

Survey: 47.8% of respondents expect BTC to rise this week, and 49.3% expect XRP ETF to be approved first

xAI’s GROK now supports real-time display of stock and cryptocurrency prices

CZ: 40% of respondents have never purchased BNB, and only 21% have never purchased Meme coins

OKX will launch VINE (Vine Coin) spot trading

Dennis Porter calls for tax exemption for small crypto transactions worth $200

Dragonfly Managing Partner predicts that the US government may launch a public expenditure reporting system based on the AVAX chain

Eric Trump Confirms US Crypto Projects to Enjoy Zero Capital Gains Tax

$7.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire at the end of this month

Musk is exploring the use of blockchain technology to improve the efficiency of the US government

JupiterDAO: Jupiter Launches Omnichain Network “Jupnet”

Nasdaq Applies to SEC for Physical Transfers of iShares Bitcoin Trust

Grayscale and CoinShares file regulatory documents proposing ETFs to track XRP, Litecoin, and Solana

Coinbase International will launch TOSHI, GIGA and GRT perpetual contract trading

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