Control of BTC has shifted to new whales

The BTC market is now in control of new holders, after wallet cohorts switched in the past year. Decisions on trading and profit-taking now come from a new set of holders, who have not seen previous market cycles. 

BTC has been shifting to a new cohort of wallets. Some of the transfers may be technical, but there are also signs that new buyers dominate. This means BTC and its direction may be guided by newer buyers, who have not seen previous price cycles. 

New whales represent a larger share of the Realized Cap for BTC, passing old multi-cycle or legacy whales. This means the marginal supply of BTC that is in the hands of new owners may determine the coin’s direction. 

The Realized Cap metric is the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement. When the metric shifts to new whales, it means the supply of BTC has changed hands at a higher price range. In the case of BTC, this also means a new cohort of wallets bought near all-time highs above $120,000.  

Experienced holders divested in 2025

In 2025, long-term whales and large holders moved their coins, possibly taking profits. Now, the control is back to the new capital that entered late in the recent bull market. Wallets aged 6-12 months held over 17% of the marginal supply, becoming one of the most influential sellers.

The transition happened just as BTC was seeking direction. In the past day, BTC crashed as low as $86,000 with worsening sentiment. The price fluctuations are hurting the narrative of holding for the long term, as newer whales are often willing to realize profits and cut losses. 

On average, new whales have accumulated BTC at $98,000, only recently barely breaking even. Spot prices are showing a downward trend and more bearish expectations for 2026. 

The new cohorts hold around $6B in unrealized losses, which may influence investor behavior in the coming months. 

New whales are willing to take losses

The prevalence of new whales affected the latest price moves for BTC. During the latest market downturn, new whales sold into weakening prices. The cohort is under pressure and shows short-term risk mitigation trades, rather than conviction. 

For older whales, the current prices are not a big pain point. Their realized price is around $40,000 per BTC. The activity of older whales is more sporadic and minor, not creating significant price pressure and capitulations. However, those whales are not influential in the newer pricing dynamics. 

Newer whales may continue to trade until all losses are absorbed, or the market reaches a capitulation and recovery. For BTC, this means distribution is back. Recent data shows wallets aged 6-12 months are the biggest sources of distribution in the past months. 

The recent selling pushed the crypto fear and greed index down to 32 points, back into fear territory. Recently, the index for BTC had briefly recovered to neutral.

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