XRP market structure maintains the downtrend; recent LH/LL patterns are dominant, but BOS above $1.9686 could signal upside.
Market Structure Overview
XRP is trading at $1.91 as of January 23, 2026, and stayed in the $1.90-$1.96 range with a -1.90% drop over the last 24 hours. The market structure generally shows a downtrend; lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) patterns are clearly observed. This indicates that the price has consistently broken below recent swing highs ($1.9686, $1.9165) and lows ($1.8783). Remaining below the short-term EMA20 ($2.01) confirms the bearish short-term structure. The Supertrend signal is bearish, and the $2.20 resistance level is strong. RSI at 41.34 is in the neutral-bearish zone, with MACD’s negative histogram supporting downside momentum. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis shows a total of 11 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and a balanced 3S/3R on 1W. News flow is calm, with structural movements remaining technically driven. Check the links for XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) patterns are sought; the price needs to break above previous swing lows and form new highs. Currently, XRP shows weak HL signals: the $1.8783 support has held strong so far (score 78/100), but breaking $1.9686 resistance (score 71) is critical for the first BOS (break of structure). A close above EMA20 and RSI crossing above 50 could support a bullish shift. Structural target at $2.5023 (score 45), but it remains distant under current LH/LL dominance. Breaking above $2.0227 resistance (score 65) would signal a trend change (CHoCH – change of character).
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is confirmed by LH/LL: Rejection from the recent swing high at $1.9686, followed by $1.9165 LH formation and approach to $1.8783 LL. This pattern indicates the trend remains intact; bearish bias persists as long as price stays below EMA20. MACD is negative and RSI at 41 is nearing oversold, but momentum remains downward. A break below $1.8783 (bearish BOS) opens the path to $1.7711 (score 68) and structural target at $1.3876 (score 22). LL patterns on the 1W timeframe strongly support this.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
BOS levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: Daily close above $1.9686 (main swing high), followed by a move to $2.0227. This breaks the LH pattern and signals a shift to HL; CHoCH forms. Bearish BOS: Break below $1.8783 confirms LL, targeting $1.7711 and $1.3876. In MTF, 1D resistances (3) increase bearish pressure, while 1W supports (3) heighten deep downside risk. Exceeding these levels invalidates the trend: Upside BOS negates the downtrend, downside BOS negates the uptrend. Watch: Micro support around $1.90, acceleration on break.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $1.9686 (score 71/100, main resistance), $1.9165 (65/100, LH level), $2.0227 (65/100, near EMA20). These points are rejection zones; bounces from here strengthen the LH pattern. $1.9686 represents the short-term trendline – a break opens the door to HH, while staying below reinforces LL. Importance: High-score swings (70+) are liquidity collection points.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $1.8783 (score 78/100, critical support), $1.7711 (68/100, secondary). These levels should be tested for HL; holding creates bullish divergence. A break increases bearish momentum. Importance: Swing lows are trend reversal pivots – high scores indicate institutional interest. $1.8783 is the main HTF support on 1D MTF.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC is flat at $89,883 with +0.01%, but in a downtrend with bearish Supertrend. BTC supports at $89,160 / $86,739 / $84,681; resistances at $90,245 / $92,308. BTC.Dominance is not rising but bearish Supertrend signals caution for altcoins. XRP has 0.8% correlation to BTC; BTC below $89k tests XRP’s $1.8783. BTC BOS above $90k could trigger XRP rally to $1.9686. BTC downtrend continuation deepens XRP’s LH/LL – watch BTC moves without alts.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominant, consolidation below EMA. Trend intact; BOS above $1.9686 brings bullish shift, below $1.8783 brings bearish continuation. Educational note: Market structure is determined by HH/HL (bull) vs LH/LL (bear) – changes via BOS/CHoCH. Short-term $1.90-$1.96 range, breaks determine direction. Long-term, balanced 1W levels carry reversal potential. Risk management: Place stop-loss at swing levels. Market structures are dynamic; regular MTF checks essential.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-market-structure-january-23-2026-trend-analysis
