QCP: Bitcoin rebounded to $88,000 before fluctuating; the market is currently focused on key events such as the Fed decision.
PANews reported on January 28th that QCP Capital published an analysis stating that after a sharp drop earlier this week, Bitcoin rebounded to the $88,000 level, which has consistently resembled a trap. Recent price declines have often been accompanied by rapid liquidation-driven short-selling pullbacks, while rapid rebounds have typically pulled prices back into normal ranges. The market is currently facing multiple key events: the Federal Reserve FOMC decision today (January 28th), the January 30th funding deadline that could trigger a government shutdown, and the Senate debate on the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
The options market reflects asymmetric risk, with relatively controlled volatility and a term structure still showing a futures premium, indicating that the market expects volatility rather than a sharp decline. However, the left-tail risk premium is high, and the skewness remains negative, suggesting that recent option price movements are more like a hedge against gap risk.
On the fiscal front, the market is focused on whether Washington can successfully navigate the January 30th deadline. A timely agreement would alleviate near-term risk premiums, allowing cryptocurrencies to perform more in line with the overall market. A brief stalemate could still trigger rapid fluctuations in risk aversion, but this volatility would subside once an agreement is reached. However, a protracted stalemate would significantly tighten liquidity and force broader risk-averse sentiment. A more pressing key lies with the Federal Reserve. The base case is for interest rates to remain unchanged, and the market's focus is on when rate cuts will resume.
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