XRP accumulation may precede significant price movement

XRP has opened 2026 trading in a tight range under $2 as it failed to establish a clear trend in the year’s opening month.

However, underlying data suggests high-net-worth investors are accumulating the token despite the lack of price momentum.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment revealed that the XRP network has added a net 42 “millionaire” wallets since the start of 2026. These are defined as addresses holding at least 1 million XRP.

This marks the first increase in this specific cohort since September 2025. Notably, the shift has occurred even as XRP’s price remained modestly lower on the year, suggesting that large holders are using the period of weakness to build positions.

This behavior significantly alters the market’s internal dynamics as accumulation by large holders can serve as a leading indicator of a potential uptrend.

Moreover, the potential for a price shift increases when these accumulation patterns coincide with thinning sell-side liquidity, creating a scenario in which demand stabilizes just as available supply constricts.

Whales add exposure while price stays below the 200-day average

The accumulation signal arrives in a market that remains technically fragile.

XRP is trading around $1.80, which is well below its 200-day moving average of $2.54.

This gap keeps the long-term technical picture tilted toward a corrective range rather than a confirmed uptrend, a status that typically forces momentum traders to remain on the sidelines until a breakout occurs.

Notably, risk-adjusted performance metrics reflect this cautious environment.

Cryptoquant data shows a 30-day Sharpe Ratio of approximately 0.034 for XRP. This reading is close to zero, indicating that recent returns have barely compensated investors for the volatility they have endured.

Such conditions are characteristic of consolidating markets where traders receive minimal payment for taking directional risk.

Meanwhile, additional metrics reinforce the view of a market in equilibrium rather than one driven by a fresh impulse.

A Sharpe Z-Score of around 0.70 suggests that return quality has improved compared to its recent baseline, but the figure remains below the threshold typically associated with clear trend formation.

Additionally, the 7-day Sharpe Momentum stands at roughly 0.03. This marginally positive figure is consistent with a base-building phase rather than the sharp breakout required to attract new retail volume.

The tension between these technicals and the on-chain data defines the current market structure. The chart indicates that XRP is capped by long-term resistance, while wallet data suggests large holders are disregarding the technical ceiling to accumulate assets.

In a range-bound market, rallies are often treated as selling opportunities. However, if the market transitions to a trend phase, pullbacks are viewed as entry points.

So, XRP is currently testing which of these two regimes will dominate 2026.

XRP’s exchange supply looks thin, but volume is still missing

A potential driver of whale accumulation may be the tightening of supply on trading venues.

Another analysis from CryptoQuant showed that the proportion of XRP held on exchanges is currently in a “bottom zone,” suggesting that selling pressure has stabilized after a period of coins draining from exchanges.

In this framework, a decline in exchange-held supply can set the stage for sharper upside moves because fewer assets are readily available to be sold into a rally.

The analysis references prior market behavior, stating that declines in Exchange Supply Share have historically preceded price increases with a lag.

Specifically, the data points to the period from February to April 2025 as a precedent. Conversely, it notes that rising Exchange Supply Share aligned with distribution and market tops during July to September 2025.

However, the current setup is complicated by a lack of trading volume.

The analysis warns that the market has not yet seen the volume expansion necessary to confirm a trend. Without a surge in volume, any potential upside is more likely to manifest as a temporary relief bounce rather than a sustained rally.

This nuance is critical for positioning in 2026. If whales continue to accumulate while exchange balances remain low, the market risks becoming thin on the offer side.

Thin markets can accelerate rapidly when demand returns, but they can also fail quickly if they encounter overhead resistance without sufficient follow-through buying.

XRPL is showing signs of fresh liquidity

While supply metrics focus on available liquidity, activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) provides a signal regarding network utility.

CryptoQuant data notes that the XRPL began 2026 with a significant surge in decentralized exchange (DEX) usage. The 14-day moving average of DEX transaction counts reached approximately 1.014 million, breaking a ceiling that had held since early 2025 and marking a 13-month high.

The use of a moving average in this data point is significant. While daily spikes in crypto activity can be attributed to short-lived incentives or noise, a breakout in a moving average implies sustained participation.

This suggests a consistent rise in recurring interactions and swaps, potentially indicating that liquidity is remaining sticky within the XRPL ecosystem.

Notably, investors often wait for narrative confirmation before pricing in sustained activity. However, activity breakouts can provide the evidence needed to support a later narrative re-rating.

For XRP, a token often driven by speculative positioning and legal headlines, a sustained pickup in on-chain DEX usage offers a fundamental baseline rooted in transaction volume rather than pure speculation.

What to watch for 2026

Looking ahead to potential catalysts for the rest of the year, 21Shares sketched out a scenario framework for how a 2026 repricing in XRP could unfold.

The asset management firm tied outcomes to two variables, including ETF-driven demand and real-world usage across the Ripple ecosystem.

On the demand side, the firm pointed to the early footprint of US spot XRP ETFs. It noted the products gathered more than $1.3 billion in assets in their first month, alongside a 55-day run of consecutive inflows.

21Shares also highlighted a potential supply constraint, citing exchange reserves at a seven-year low of about 1.7 billion XRP, a setup it frames as a possible supply-shock mechanism if structural buyers keep adding exposure into a thinner float.

On the usage side, 21Shares argues the adoption story is increasingly being expressed through stablecoins and on-chain activity.

It flags RLUSD stablecoin growth, citing about 37,000 holders and a market cap that rose from $72 million to about $1.38 billion in under a year. It also noted that the total value locked in XRPL DeFi has surpassed $100 million, alongside protocol upgrades focused on tokenization.

In the firm’s view, XRP’s longer-term trajectory depends on whether those rails continue to deepen and whether investor demand holds alongside them.

According to 21shares, this mix has historically mattered for assets that spend long stretches compressing before abrupt repricing phases.

Based on those assumptions, 21Shares models a 2026 peak price of $2.45 in its base case, $2.69 in its bull case, and $1.60 in its bear case.