Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC Near $78K as Charts Flag $107K Upside and Head-and-Shoulders Risk

With Bitcoin trading near the $78,000 area at the time of analysis, a combination of classical technical patterns, derivatives positioning, and macro liquidity factors is shaping the current Bitcoin price prediction outlook.

While some analysts highlight conditions that could support a short-term rebound, others caution that several widely monitored chart structures have historically aligned with periods of consolidation or corrective pullbacks in Bitcoin’s price. As a result, near-term expectations for the bitcoin price today remain mixed rather than directional.

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Raises Reversal Concerns

Crypto market analyst Ali Martinez, known as Ali Charts, recently shared a three-day Bitcoin chart illustrating a potential head-and-shoulders formation, a pattern traditionally associated with trend deceleration rather than immediate reversal confirmation.

AliCharts shared a Bitcoin head-and-shoulders chart suggesting a $107K rally before a possible drop toward $42K, reflecting mixed trader sentiment. Source: Ali Martinez via X

“Imagine the smell, if $107,062 before $42,256,” Martinez wrote, outlining a hypothetical scenario in which Bitcoin briefly revisits higher resistance before testing lower structural support.

According to the chart, the head forms near $124,944, while the neckline is plotted around the $78,500 region—an area that has previously acted as a consolidation zone during earlier phases of this market cycle. Academic and industry research, including historical reviews published in technical analysis journals, suggests that confirmed head-and-shoulders breakdowns in highly volatile assets such as BTC have often preceded drawdowns in the 20%–30% range. However, such outcomes typically depend on sustained volume confirmation and follow-through rather than pattern appearance alone.

Market reaction to the chart underscores the broader uncertainty surrounding bitcoin technical analysis today. While some traders view the $107,000 level as a logical resistance test, others question whether short-term pattern interpretation adequately reflects broader liquidity conditions.

Elliott Wave Signals Point to Potential Cycle Completion

Elliott Wave analysis has also entered the discussion around near-term bitcoin price predictions. Several traders monitoring BTCUSDT charts suggest Bitcoin may be approaching the latter stages of a fifth wave, a phase that often coincides with slowing momentum rather than immediate reversals.

Bitcoin (BTC) sits in heavy support near $78K–$70K, completing Elliott Wave 5, with potential rebounds toward $84.5K, though geopolitical risks could prompt further declines. Source: pejman_zwin on TradingView

One widely circulated analysis notes that Bitcoin has already declined into a historically active support zone between approximately $78,260 and $70,080. This region aligns with prior consolidation ranges, elevated traded volume, and areas where derivatives positioning has previously stabilized price action. Strong support levels are rarely resolved on a single test, and corrective rebounds are common before any renewed downside attempt.

The same analysis points to a positive regular divergence between recent price lows and momentum indicators, a signal sometimes associated with reduced selling pressure. A rebound from the $74,880–$72,580 range could allow Bitcoin to revisit higher liquidity zones, including a CME futures gap near $84,560. Such gaps are frequently monitored in bitcoin price prediction daily models, but do not guarantee directional continuation.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Signals Add Complexity

Beyond standalone BTC charts, relative market performance is also influencing the current bitcoin outlook today. A TradingView chart tracking the OTHERS/BTC ratio—representing the total crypto market capitalization excluding the top ten assets relative to Bitcoin—shows a breakout from a multi-month consolidation range near 0.09–0.096.

The OTHERS/BTC ratio broke out of 0.09–0.096, indicating potential altcoin strength as BTC dominance hovers near 50%, mirroring 2017 and 2021 patterns. Source: $0uL via X

Historically, sustained increases in this ratio have coincided with periods of stronger altcoin performance during previous bull cycles, including 2017 and 2021. However, analysts caution that such shifts typically reflect portfolio rotation rather than outright weakness in bitcoin BTC price levels. With Bitcoin dominance fluctuating near 50%, capital allocation decisions may temporarily influence short-term BTC price behavior without altering broader cycle structure.

Weekly EMA Breakdown Sparks Historical Comparisons

Technical attention intensified after Bitcoin recorded a weekly close below its 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level often tracked as long-term trend support. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the development, noting that previous instances in 2018 and 2022 were followed by extended corrective phases.

Bitcoin’s weekly close dropped below the 100-week EMA for the first time since 2022, but ETF inflows and stable 2.7% CPI suggest $78K may hold as support. Source: Ted via X

“Last time this happened, Bitcoin crashed 58%,” Pillows wrote, referencing historical drawdowns observed after similar EMA breaches.

Other market participants, however, caution against direct historical extrapolation. Unlike prior cycles, the current environment includes persistent BTC ETF inflows, higher institutional participation, and a comparatively stable inflation backdrop near 2.7% in the United States. These factors may influence market response, suggesting that the present bitcoin price today could reflect consolidation rather than immediate structural breakdown.

Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Liquidity Cycles

Bitcoin’s technical positioning continues to interact with broader macroeconomic dynamics, particularly global liquidity conditions and institutional demand. Expectations around monetary policy normalization, combined with steady spot Bitcoin ETF allocations, have altered the structural backdrop compared with earlier tightening-driven downturns.

At the same time, analysts note that geopolitical developments and energy-market volatility can quickly impact risk assets, including BTC, through changes in leverage, derivatives positioning, and margin requirements. This interaction helps explain why bitcoin price prediction today remains highly conditional despite increasingly visible chart signals.

Diverging Targets Reflect Market Uncertainty

Short-term frameworks currently focus on whether Bitcoin can defend established support zones and attempt a recovery toward the $84,000–$107,000 range. Longer-term projections, including Elliott Wave extension scenarios, vary widely and are best viewed as conditional models rather than forecasts.

Bitcoin was trading at around $75,485.526, down 4.09% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

Some analysts reference upside extensions well above current levels, while others emphasize that sustained trend continuation typically requires confirmation through volume expansion, liquidity inflows, and macro alignment. Until those conditions materialize, bitcoin price outlook assessments continue to favor caution, disciplined risk management, and adaptability rather than reliance on singular directional predictions.