Bitcoin, moderate risk but whales stationary: MVRV BTC +21% indicates profit-taking and consolidation

With MVRV BTC +21% in the latest Santiment update, the risk on Bitcoin is moderate: the probability of profit-taking increases and a consolidation phase is emerging. The whales are not selling and continue to accumulate, reducing the supply pressure and maintaining a balance, albeit fragile.

According to the data collected by our on-chain research team, the accumulation metrics and supply distribution show a shift towards medium and large-sized wallets over the last 18 months. The market analysts we collaborate with observe that, despite the increase in MVRV, there are currently no systemic signs of excessive leverage expansion that typically accompany market tops.

TL;DR

• MVRV BTC +21% (Santiment, August 2025) indicates that a large portion of holders is in profit and that the risk of realizations in the short term is increasing.
• Consolidation likely: volatility at times, lateral bias until new macro catalysts emerge.
• Whales accumulating (wallet 10–10,000 BTC): in the previous 12 months, they have added over 260k BTC to the supply in custody, according to on-chain data.
• Fed Factor: pay attention to the September 2025 meeting and the rate expectations, which can influence the appetite for risk.

MVRV Bitcoin: what it is, how it is calculated, why it matters now

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares the market capitalization of Bitcoin with the realized capitalization, which is the aggregate value of all coins at the price of the last on-chain movement. In this context, it is a synthetic thermometer of the average unrealized margin.

• MVRV > 1 (or > 0% in the Santiment percentage format) indicates that the majority of holders are in potential profit; it increases the propensity to take profit.
• MVRV < 1 (or < 0%) indicates that many are in latent loss; the probability of accumulation increases.

The most recent reading from Santiment shows a value of about +21%: it is not a historical extreme, but it falls within a moderate risk zone that has often preceded phases of price consolidation or cooling. It should be noted that macro contexts can shift the balances quickly.

Basic formula: MVRV = market cap / realized cap. In the Santiment dashboards, the data is expressed as the percentage deviation of the market cap from the realized cap: MVRV% = (market cap − realized cap) / realized cap.

On-chain signals: moderate risk and possible profit-taking

With an MVRV in the +21% area, a significant part of the market is in profit. In these conditions, it is natural for some holders to realize, reducing directional momentum and favoring a sideways trading range. We are not in a “top euphoria,” but in a phase where risk is perceived and liquidity is managed with greater caution.

Price: short-term overview and market structure

After the new all-time high reached in mid-2025, Bitcoin has initiated a technical pause: price swings within a defined range, decreasing volumes, and reduced directional momentum. An interesting aspect is the effect of leveraged positions, which can generate volatility spikes in the presence of short-/long-squeeze.

• Real-time data on derivatives and liquidations: CoinGlass.

Whales steady: accumulation in wallets 10–10,000 BTC

Wallets with 10–10,000 BTC have continued to increase their holdings throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025, adding about 266k BTC since the beginning of 2024. The distribution of supply remains skewed towards strong hands, which so far have not shown signs of aggressive selling. In this context, the supply pressure remains under control.

Detailed historical series: Santiment dashboard.

Macro factor: Fed of September 2025 and risk appetite

The macro picture remains decisive. The September 2025 meeting of the Federal Reserve will be watched for any indications on rate cuts or confirmations, with a direct impact on investors’ asset allocation. The implied probabilities are available on the CME FedWatch Tool. It should be noted that surprises on the inflation or employment front can shift expectations rapidly.

For the official calendar and FOMC statements, consult the Federal Reserve page (Federal Reserve – FOMC calendar).

1–2 week scenarios: consolidation as the base case

• Base case: lateral range, with volatility spikes on macro data or leverage imbalances.
• Bear risk: profit-taking if the MVRV remains high and positive catalysts are lacking.
• Technical upside: rebounds on key supports in case of accommodating surprises from the Fed or new institutional flows.

How to read the MVRV for decisions (without simplifying)

• MVRV ~+21%: many holders in profit; the probability of realizations increases.
• Context: integrate MVRV with liquidations, funding, open interest and whale supply to reduce false signals.
• On-chain + derivatives: monitor Santiment for MVRV and on-chain activity and CoinGlass for leverage and liquidations.

Key points and sources

• MVRV BTC: ~+21%, moderate risk (Santiment).
• Whales: wallet 10–10,000 BTC in accumulation (+266k BTC since the beginning of 2024) (Crypto.news).
• Macro: rate expectations via CME FedWatch Tool and FOMC calendar (Federal Reserve).
• On-chain deep dive: reports and methodologies on MVRV (Santiment, Glassnode, Chainalysis) — see also the summary report by Chainalysis for on-chain data and accumulation trends (Chainalysis Reports).

Other sources: Santiment Academy, Santiment Insights.

Disclaimer: the content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risks.