XRP Drifts To $1.38 as Heavy Outflows Persist and RSI Flashes Warning

• XRP falls 2.83% to $1.3894 as spot outflows reach $19.57 million and open interest drops 3.97% to $2.44 billion amid persistent selling pressure.
• Daily RSI sits at 32.01, approaching oversold territory as the token trades 62% below July highs near $3.65.
• Recovery requires reclaiming $1.45 Supertrend resistance, while a close below $1.37 opens downside toward the $1.10 crash low.

XRP price today trades near $1.38 after sliding below the $1.40 support level that had contained price through the weekend consolidation. The decline comes as spot outflows accelerate and the token approaches oversold conditions on the daily timeframe, raising questions about whether the bounce from crash lows has already exhausted.

Spot Outflows Accelerate To $19.57 Million

Coinglass data shows $19.57 million in spot outflows on February 9, a significant increase from the $6.96 million outflow two days prior. The acceleration in selling pressure suggests the consolidation phase may be ending with a move lower rather than continuation of the bounce.

The flow pattern through February shows persistent distribution with no meaningful inflow days since the crash. When outflows accelerate during a consolidation phase, it typically signals that sellers are using the bounce to exit rather than buyers stepping in to accumulate.

Derivatives Data Shows Continued Deleveraging

Open interest dropped 3.97% to $2.44 billion while volume fell 22.56% to $5.30 billion. Options volume collapsed 28.82% to $1.90 million, reflecting exhausted trading activity.

The long/short ratio sits at 0.93, showing a slight short bias for the first time during this selloff. On Binance, top traders maintain a 2.39 ratio by accounts, but positions by size show a 0.90 ratio, indicating larger traders are positioning short.

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Over the past 24 hours, $10.58 million in positions were liquidated, with $8.48 million from longs and $2.10 million from shorts. The 4x imbalance shows longs continue to be caught offside as price fails to hold support levels.

The open interest chart reveals a dramatic deleveraging from peaks above $10 billion during the rally to current levels at $2.47 billion. This 75% reduction in open interest removes the forced selling pressure that accelerates crashes but also reflects diminished speculative interest.

Daily Chart Shows RSI Approaching Oversold

On the daily chart, XRP trades within a descending channel that has guided price action since July. The token sits well below all four major EMAs, with the 20 day at $1.63, the 50 day at $1.82, the 100 day at $2.01, and the 200 day at $2.19.

RSI has dropped to 32.01, approaching the oversold threshold of 30 that historically precedes at least a relief bounce. The last time RSI reached similar levels was during the crash to $1.10, suggesting downside momentum may be exhausting.

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The current price represents a 62% decline from the July highs near $3.65. The descending channel support currently runs through approximately $1.20, providing the next major technical target if $1.37 support fails.

Hourly Chart Shows Supertrend Flip Warning

On the hourly chart, XRP has broken below the Supertrend support at $1.40, with the indicator now flipping bearish at $1.45. The Parabolic SAR sits at $1.45, creating a confluence of resistance that bulls must overcome to signal recovery.

Price found support at $1.38 after breaking the Supertrend, but the bounce has been weak. The failure to reclaim $1.40 quickly after the breakdown suggests selling pressure remains dominant.

The consolidation range from February 6-8 between $1.40 and $1.55 has now broken to the downside. Former support at $1.40 becomes resistance, creating a technical ceiling for any recovery attempts.

Outlook: Will XRP Go Up?

The trend remains firmly bearish as the token breaks key support levels and spot outflows accelerate.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $1.63 would reclaim the 20 day EMA and signal that the selloff has exhausted. RSI near oversold at 32 could attract contrarian buyers if broader sentiment stabilizes.
• Bearish case: A close below $1.37 would confirm the consolidation breakdown and target the $1.10 crash low. Accelerating outflows of $19.57 million and the Supertrend flip suggest sellers remain in control.

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