China Pays $50.5B in Dividends; Liquidity Shock Before Lunar Year

Chinese listed companies have already paid out a historic amount of dividends of 50.5 billion in advance of the Lunar New Year. The dividend is 348.8 billion yuan, the highest amount in the history of the company. The surge is an drastic increase of more than 20 percent unlike in the past years. Timing also matters. This was capital that was emitted by companies on the eve of the largest spending season in China. Consequently, there has been a tremendous increase in liquidity both at household and market levels.

Push of Regulations is the Surge

The regulation was also a significant factor behind the scenes. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been aggressively applying force to the listed companies to enhance returns to shareholders. In particular, the CSRC desires better capital discipline and equity markets of better quality. The consistency in dividend has become a major measure. Thus, this forced businesses to increase pre-holiday payouts.

Good Earnings Are in Favor of the Move

Notably, these dividends are not innocuous at all. They are indicative of sound corporate earnings, especially in the technology, manufacturing, and export based sectors. Most firms recorded stable cash flows despite the macro challenges that are still in operation. That stability enabled management teams to reward the shareholders with confidence. Thus, the dividends also portend the confidence in the recovery story of the Chinese economy.

Lunar New Year is traditionally a stimuli of increased consumer consumption and asset reallocation. The additional cash is likely to be invested in travel, consumption and investments. This year is strange in the scale though. Tens of billions of dollars into circulation simultaneously can have a significant impact on asset prices. Therefore, there can be temporary stabilizing or reviving inflows in A-share markets.

China Cryptocurrency Markets

To crypto investors, the dividend wave is more than it seems. Traditionally, surplus liquidity is prone to yield search. Capital is likely to be redirected to other investments when the traditional markets appear questionable. Such rotations are often advantageous to Bitcoin. Past cycles indicated that similar liquidity events were accompanied by more BTC trading volume and risk-on behaviour.

Although dividends are not known to cause the bull markets all by themselves, they tend to serve as catalysts in many cases. They improve sentiment. They relax the financial standards. And they decrease short-term downside strain. Together with the global expectations of easing, this development contributes another puzzle to the liquidity. To the point, money is flowing – and markets are listening.

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