Powell’s Last Jackson Hole Speech May Decide Bitcoin’s Next Big Move

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage tomorrow at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming for what will be his final appearance at the prestigious gathering since being appointed by then-President Donald Trump in 2017.

His address, scheduled for 17:00 (UTC+3) at Jackson Lake Lodge, is expected to attract intense scrutiny from global central bankers, investors, and crypto traders alike, who are searching for clues about the Fed’s next interest rate move.

A Legacy of Pivotal Speeches

Over seven years, Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks have often set the tone for financial markets. In 2018, he stressed gradual rate hikes, which were delivered four times that year. By 2019, amid slowing global growth, he shifted to caution, leading to three rate cuts.

The pandemic in 2020 saw Powell unveil a new strategy prioritizing maximum employment alongside an average 2% inflation goal. A year later, he famously called inflation “temporary,” a stance that drew criticism as price pressures mounted.

In 2022, his warning that bringing inflation under control would bring “pain” marked the start of an aggressive tightening cycle. By 2023, he kept policy rates steady but hinted at possible further hikes if inflation didn’t ease. Last year, Powell pivoted again, signaling it was time to cut rates, with the Fed ultimately delivering a 50 basis point reduction in September.

Crypto Market Holds Its Breath

Ahead of this year’s speech, Bitcoin and Ethereum traded largely steady. Early Friday, Bitcoin slipped to $113,018, while Ethereum edged down 0.1% to $4,284, according to The Block’s crypto price page.

Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu said consensus expects a hawkish Powell, which could weigh on risk assets. “A dovish surprise could spark a rally, while hawkish remarks may deepen selling,” Liu noted. If Powell offers little clarity, markets are likely to remain in a holding pattern.

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Wall Street still broadly expects a rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool pricing in a 74.4% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. But mixed economic signals have complicated the outlook. July CPI data came in cooler, and jobless claims ticked higher, suggesting inflationary pressure may be easing. Yet, a hotter-than-expected PPI and sticky core services inflation, alongside tariffs from Trump, argue for caution.

Risks for Bitcoin and Beyond

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas warned that a hawkish tone from Powell could trigger as much as a 30% correction in Bitcoin if investors shift into risk-off mode. Still, she pointed out that the current pullback fits within the cryptocurrency’s typical four-year halving cycle.

“It’s common for prices to soften in September after halving, before picking up into November and December as supply dynamics tighten,” Lucas explained. Beyond Jackson Hole, crypto traders will be focused on U.S. inflation data, Fed policy meetings, and ETF flows, as well as political moves such as Trump’s tariff decisions.

Bitcoin Scenarios After Jackson Hole

• Bull Case: If Powell signals a dovish stance and reinforces expectations for a September rate cut, Bitcoin could break past $120,000 quickly, with momentum potentially carrying it toward $130,000–$135,000 into Q4.
• Base Case: A neutral or balanced Powell speech could see Bitcoin consolidate between $108,000 and $118,000, with traders waiting on inflation data and the September Fed meeting for clearer direction.
• Bear Case: A hawkish Powell, stressing inflation risks, could send Bitcoin lower by 20–30%, testing support levels near $95,000–$100,000 before buyers step back in ahead of year-end seasonality.

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Markets Await Final Word

This year’s Jackson Hole speech is set against the backdrop of moderating inflation but persistent uncertainty. For Powell, it will be the final opportunity at the symposium to shape expectations as he hands the reins of U.S. monetary policy into the next chapter.

For both Wall Street and the crypto markets, his words could determine whether the months ahead bring relief through rate cuts or renewed volatility fueled by caution.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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