AVAX breaks key pattern as $9 turns into major supply zone

• The Avalanche (AVAX) token traded around $8.84 as sell-off pressure kept prices lower.
• Bulls have failed to reclaim the $10 mark and fresh declines may push AVAX to lows of $6.30.
• Sentiment across crypto is largely bearish.

Avalanche (AVAX) is facing mounting resistance just below the $9 mark, where persistent bearish pressure has stifled recent recovery attempts.

The altcoin’s bearish outlook aligns with broader cryptocurrency market vulnerability, and having recoiled off the resistance level, technicals suggest fresh losses are likely.

Avalanche price recap

AVAX has navigated a turbulent path over the past month, with prices falling since hitting highs near $15 on January 14, 2026.

The decline, currently putting the token 39% off its 30-day peak, has come amid significant macroeconomic headwinds and sector-wide profit-taking.

Bears have largely taken control despite Avalanche C-Chain’s recent network milestones, including throughput.

According to Ava Labs’ Martin Eckardt, the chain could hit over 4 million gas per second by next week.

The dip to under $8.30 on February 5, 2026, intensified the sell-off pressure, and bulls find it difficult to break higher.

In the last 24 hours, the token fluctuated between a low of $8.64 and a high of $8.96, with trading volume dipping 7% to 254 million.

The past week’s performance tells a similar story of stalled momentum.

AVAX has seen two green days out of seven, with volatility under 1%, as bears defend the $9 threshold amid extreme fear readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Avalanche price prediction: Technical picture

From a technical standpoint, AVAX has broken below a key weekly falling wedge pattern, with $9 acting as an immediate supply zone.

Further short-term bearish bias is from the weekly RSI at 30, with a move to oversold conditions hinting at a potential dip before another bounce on a volume uptick.

A notable leg down will rely on key support clusters at $8.50–$8.25, a zone reinforced by recent lows. If prices breach this defense line, bearish targets include lows of $7.50 and $.6.30.

On the other hand, upside catalysts will include a reclaim of $9.38 and a retest of the short-term max pain projection at the $13.90 resistance.

If indecisiveness resolves in favour of bulls, with the weekly MACD forming a bullish crossover, the next target will be the dynamic resistance mark coinciding with the 50-week moving average (at $19.42 as of writing).

The 200-day moving average is offering resistance at $23.69.

Avalanche’s lack of upside momentum mirrors Bitcoin’s struggle below $70,000. Crypto analysts see the overall market sentiment as still largely bearish, with forecasts for a potential dip to $50k for BTC.

Downside momentum will cascade across altcoins.