JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Finding Support at $77,000, Turns Bullish on Crypto for 2026

• JPMorgan Chase sees Bitcoin support near its $77K production cost despite the recent sell-off.
• The bank expects stronger institutional flows to drive a broader crypto recovery in 2026.
• Analysts say long-term upside remains intact even as markets face extreme fear.

While the ongoing Bitcoin correction rattles investors, JPMorgan Chase is taking a long-term view, projecting a promising 2026 led by stronger institutional flows.

Notably, Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,100, down 1.63% over the past day. Meanwhile, the Wall Street giant believes Bitcoin could find support around its estimated production cost, currently near $77,000, even as prices trade well below that level.

Bitcoin Slides Below Production Cost

Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% over the past month, recently trading at $60,000 amid last week’s historic sell-off. The premier crypto is currently 47% below its all-time high, trading at $66,100 at press time.

The broader digital asset market cap has also dropped sharply, from $4.1 trillion to about $2.3 trillion.

According to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin’s estimated production cost, historically seen as a “soft price floor,” now stands around $77,000, though some estimates previously placed it closer to $87,000.

The bank notes that if Bitcoin trades below this level for an extended period, higher-cost miners may be forced offline. However, this could lower the overall production cost and create a self-correcting dynamic over time.

Institutional Flows to Drive 2026 Recovery

Despite weak sentiment and “extreme fear,” JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook for 2026. The bank expects the next leg higher to be driven primarily by institutions rather than retail traders or digital asset treasuries. 

Regulatory clarity in the United States, including potential progress on legislation such as the Clarity Act, could further support renewed capital inflows.

This shift toward institutional leadership comes as ETF outflows, fading retail demand, and forced deleveraging in futures markets have contributed to the recent downturn.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Long-Term Repricing?

JPMorgan also argues that Bitcoin’s relative appeal has improved compared to gold.

The outperformance of gold since last October, combined with rising gold volatility, has made Bitcoin look increasingly attractive on a volatility-adjusted basis. The analysts highlighted that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen to record lows.

Using private-sector gold investment (excluding central bank holdings), estimated at roughly $8 trillion, JPMorgan suggested Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise significantly to match it. In such a scenario, the implied long-term price could reach $266,000.

The bank stressed that this is not a near-term forecast and described it as unrealistic for the current year. However, it frames the figure as a reflection of Bitcoin’s potential upside over a multi-year horizon once negative sentiment fades, and the asset regains favor as a hedge.

Market Still Under Pressure

In the short term, crypto markets remain fragile with the Fear & Greed Index at 8. Bitcoin has erased much of its previous post-election gains, and market stress metrics show elevated capitulation signals.

Yet, JPMorgan’s stance suggests that beneath the volatility, institutional conviction remains intact. For instance, Bernstein’s analysts remain confident that Bitcoin could reach a $150,000 peak this year. 

Related: Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026: What $1,000 in BTC Could Be Worth