Crypto market wobbles as investors ignore good news, look for the ‘exit ramp’: Crypto Daybook Americas

Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Monday, Feb. 16 due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. We will be back on Feb. 17.

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$69,234.07 is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline in its longest negative streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 1.7% in the past 24 hours and 4.8% since Monday morning.

The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 2% in a market that, according to Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson, is mostly driven by fear. Indeed, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now been in “extreme fear” territory for almost two weeks.

“The market’s main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, good news doesn’t register with investors. If they see an exit ramp, they’re taking it.”

To illustrate his point, Nelson pointed to the reaction to Uniswap’s UNI$3.4450 25% increase after the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock (BLK), said it was making shares of its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. treasury fund BUIDL tradable on the decentralized exchange. The token has now given back the gains made after that announcement.

“Sellers bearish on the market’s short-term direction overwhelmed the bulls betting that institutional adoption will drive value long-term,” he said.

Earlier this week, stronger U.S. payroll data and a falling unemployment rate prompted traders to rethink rate-cut expectations for the year. Further guidance may come later today in the form of inflation figures for the world’s largest economy.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is forecast to show 2.5% year-over-year inflation.

Adding to that uncertainty is concern over a partial U.S. government shutdown. Odds of that occurring tomorrow are now around 90% on prediction market Kalshi. If one materializes, expect even more volatility amid thin trading. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core inflation rate YoY for January (Prev. 2.6%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. inflation rate YoY for January (Prev. 2.7%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Feb. 13: Trump Media & Tech Group (DJT), post-market
  • Feb. 13: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.07

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 15: Connex CONX$11.33 to unlock 1.56% of its circulating supply worth $15 million.
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.75% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,933.65 (24hrs: -0.83%)
• ETH is up 2.05% at $1,961.15 (24hrs: -0.97%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.48% at 1,913.46 (24hrs: -1.96%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0019% (2.0947% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.13% at 97.05
• Gold futures are up 1.41% at $4,993.10
• Silver futures are up 3.65% at $78.30
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.21% at 56,941.97
• Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 26,567.12
• FTSE 100 is up 0.12% at 10,414.44
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 6,001.38
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.34% at 49,451.98
• S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6,832.76
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.03% at 22,597.15
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 2.37% at 32,465.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.71% at 3,741.30
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 7 bps at 4.10%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 6,832.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.29% at 24,696.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.33% at 49,358.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $33.55
• Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,875 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.48%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin remains pressured below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
• A confirmed weekly close below this level historically signals a further 20%-25% capitulation.
• The would take it toward the $51,000–$54,000 range before a bottom forms

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $141.09 (-7.90%), +5.87% at $149.37 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% at $57.60
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% at $7.33
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% at $14.32
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% at $17.50
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% at $9.42
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% at $124.89
• Strive (ASST): closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% at $7.74
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% at $6.61
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$410.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$113.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.8 million

Source: Farside Investors

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