Bitcoin Price Recovery Could be Capped at $78K: Here’s Why

Market analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) is in a relief rally after its 17% recovery from multi-year lows below $60,000, but the $78,000 level is key to reversing the broader downtrend.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin price is up 17% from sub-$60,000 lows as onchain data shows signs of returning demand.

• BTC price resistance around $78,000 must be broken to end the downtrend.

Bitcoin buyers are returning

Bitcoin’s net taker volume suggests buyers are stepping in as demand for BTC derivatives returned, data from CryptoQuant shows. 

Net taker volume, a metric that measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets, has remained positive since the US and Israel-Iran war began.

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“Since the conflict broke out, net taker volume as measured by the 30-day moving average has been positive,” CEO at Coinbureau Nic Puckrin said in an X post on Wednesday. 

This positive regime coincided with the recent BTC price recovery to $74,000, indicating that demand has returned across derivatives markets. 

“This shows taker buy volume has outpaced sell volume,” Puckrin said, adding:

The bull score index, a metric that measures Bitcoin’s overall market health using a combination of fundamental and technical metrics, further reinforces this picture. 

The metric has increased to 30 from 10 on March 6, the highest since late October 2025.

The bull score index phase has “switched from ‘extra bearish’ to ‘bearish,’” said CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, adding:

Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues, with these investment products recording three straight days of inflows, totalling $529.2 million.

BTC price must break $78,000 to end downtrend

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has spent more than four weeks consolidating within a $62,000–$72,000 range, with multiple failed attempts to sustain a strong footing above $70,000. 

Zooming out, the price remains sandwiched between the realized price (average acquisition cost of all circulating supply) at $54,400 and true market mean (the cost basis of actively transacted coins) at $78,000, Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain newsletter, adding:

The chart above shows that the BTC price was within these two cost-basis levels for most of 2023, with relief rallies being repeatedly rejected at the true market mean. Ultimately, the price broke out in October 2023, with the announcement of US spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as the main catalyst.

Trader and analyst Titan of Crypto said a break above $78,000-$80,000 could signal a long-term trend change.

Yesterday, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s upside could be capped at $78,000, with derivatives traders pricing low odds for a BTC price breakout past this level in the near term. 

In the meantime, Glassnode said repeated failures to hold above $70,000 “tilts the mid-term return distribution toward the downside,” with the realized price at $54,000 serving as the primary support level to watch.

Other areas of interest include the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,300, the $60,000-65,500 demand zone and the 200-week simple moving average at $58,800, which has historically provided the last line of defense in macro drawdowns.