The US Dollar (USD) keeps the upper hand against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, trading near 1.3925 at the moment of writing, with the 1.3966 year-to-date high at a relatively short distance. The pair is on track for its third consecutive weekly rally, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weighed by the risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran war.
Trading volumes are expected to remain low, with most markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday bank holiday. During the US session, however, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report is likely to attract significant interest and might trigger wild FX movements due to the limited liquidity conditions
US Payrolls are seen bouncing up in March
The market consensus anticipates US net employment to have increased by 60K in March àttyially offsetting the 92K decline posted in February. The positive ADP employment reading seen earlier this week and the strong US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) have contributed to boosting investors’ expectations about March’s payroll figures.
Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East continues, keeping investors’ appetite for risk subdued. The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a proposal by Bahrain authorizing countries to use “all defensive means necessary” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an initiative that has been rejected by veto-wielding Chinese representatives.
Data released on Thursday showed that Canada’s Merchandise Trade Balance deficit widened to a six-month high at CAD 5.74 billion i (USD 14.4 billion) in February, as imports increased 8.4% to an all-time high of CAD 72.05 billion, offsetting the 6.4% rise in exports.
Also on Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, warned that the recent surge in Oil prices might complicate the central bank’s rate-setting activity in a context ot a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market. The impact on the US Dollar, however, was minimal.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
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Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can’t determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
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Next release:
Fri Apr 03, 2026 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Consensus:
4.4%
Previous:
4.4%
Source:
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-holds-gains-above-13900-with-all-eyes-on-us-jobs-data-202604030626
