Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock: What to Expect From Q4 Earnings on Wednesday

TLDR

• Constellation Brands reports Q4 FY2026 earnings on April 8
• Wall Street expects EPS of $1.71–$1.74 on revenue of ~$1.87–$1.9 billion
• Options traders are pricing in a ±5.6% move post-earnings — nearly double the 2.89% historical average
• Beer sales expected flat year-over-year at $1.71 billion; Wine & Spirits sales projected to drop 57.6%
• STZ carries a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $169.00, implying ~11.77% upside

Constellation Brands is set to report its fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026 results on April 8, and Wall Street is watching closely.

Constellation Brands, Inc., STZ

Analyst estimates are clustered around $1.71 to $1.74 EPS, though UBS analyst Peter Grom is slightly more cautious, modeling $1.59 — below consensus. Revenue is expected to come in around $1.87 to $1.9 billion, down roughly 12–13% from the same quarter last year.

That revenue drop is largely tied to the Wine and Spirits segment, which analysts expect to fall 57.6% year-over-year to around $194.97 million. Constellation sold off a large portion of that business, so the comparison is distorted. Operating income from Wine and Spirits is projected at just $2.39 million, versus $99.70 million a year ago.

The beer business, home to Modelo and Pacifico, is holding up. Beer net sales are forecast at $1.71 billion, roughly flat year-over-year. Beer operating income is expected at $573.63 million, down from $623.80 million in the prior year quarter.

Options Market Pricing in a Big Swing

Options traders are expecting a move of ±5.6% following the print — well above the stock’s average post-earnings swing of 2.89% over the last four quarters. That suggests the market sees real uncertainty around this report.

Grom at UBS raised his price target to $176 from $168, keeping a Buy rating. He flagged that expectations are running high going into the print, and STZ doesn’t always pop even when it beats. He sees any weakness after earnings as likely short-lived.

Evercore ISI analyst Robert Ottenstein is more bullish on the numbers. He’s modeling EPS of $1.73, above consensus, and expects beer sales to beat Street estimates. He pointed to positive distributor feedback and improving beer volumes as reasons for optimism.

Beer Brands Carry the Story

Modelo remains one of the best-performing beer brands in the U.S. market, and that strength has been the backbone of STZ’s year-to-date gains.

Ottenstein acknowledged that margins could face some cost pressure but sees the demand backdrop as stable. Grom echoed that view, pointing to improving category trends and steady market share gains.

STZ carries a Moderate Buy consensus from Wall Street — nine Buys, five Holds, and one Sell over the past three months. The average price target sits at $169.00.

Over the past month, STZ returned +2.7%, compared to a -4.2% move in the S&P 500 composite. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

The Q4 earnings report drops April 8.

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