Why The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Are Still The Favorites To Win NFC South After Disappointing Loss To Atlanta Falcons

It’s true that the headlines this morning will paint that the end is near for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers blew a 14-point lead at home in the fourth quarter on national television to the lowly Atlanta Falcons. Despite the returns of key players such as Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay lost to an Atlanta squad playing for nothing but pride with a backup veteran quarterback (Kirk Cousins) on his last legs.

People – observers and media – are calling for Todd Bowles’ firing due to the Buccaneers being in a free fall. Tampa Bay has lost six of their past eight games after a solid start to the season (6-2). They’re now in danger of missing the playoffs altogether for the first time since the 2019 season as they’re a half-game back of the NFC South-leading Carolina Panthers at 7-7.

The normally reserved and calm Bowles issued an expletive-laden rant in the postgame press conference, a sign that the time is now for the Buccaneers to kick their play into high gear.

“It’s inexcusable,” said Bowles after the game. “You don’t make excuses. You got to f—ing care enough where the s— hurts. It’s got to f—-ing mean something to you.”

There’s no sugarcoating it, this is a bad loss and the Buccaneers do have problems beyond their injuries. The defensive unit is playing worse as the season progresses, ranking 23rd in points allowed per game overall (25.3 points per game) and 29th in passing yards allowed.

The defensive unit has made Cousins and Tyler Shough – with all due respect to them – look like the best quarterbacks in the league. The 37-year-0ld Cousins, who entered the season and ended last year as the backup to Michael Penix, led his first game-winning drive since Week 5 of last season against the Buccaneers.

Cousins’ stat line looked like this – three touchdowns, 373 passing yards, no turnovers and a 117.0 passer rating. Meanwhile, his tight end Kyle Pitts, a former highly-hyped tight end who hasn’t quite lived up to billing during his pro years, every bit lived up to it in this game. He recorded 11 catches for 166 yards and all three of Cousins’ touchdowns for one of the best single game efforts by a tight end in NFL history.

With that being said, even though it feels like the Buccaneers’ world is turned upside down, the reality is they’re in control of their own destiny and will win the NFC South with of their last three games remaining against the Panthers. That’s not even mentioning how the regular season finale is at home at Raymond James Stadium.

Sandwiched in between those games is a matchup against the Miami Dolphins just three hours down south. Meanwhile, the Panthers have three tough divisional matchups remaining on their schedule, with the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks – who are vying for the NFC’s No. 1 seed – sandwiched in between.

If the Buccaneers win those games against the Panthers and win the division for the fifth consecutive season – a feat never accomplished in franchise history – everyone will forget about this loss, the team’s defensive shortcomings and will back off of Bowles.

For the first time in five games, the offense showed life and the unit showed a lot of it. It wasn’t pretty at first, with Baker Mayfield starting out the first half 9-for-19, but he did throw for 145 passing yards, with Evans immediately making an impact in his return.

“Execution,” said Mayfield of the Buccaneers’ biggest issue after the game. “It’s not a preparation problem. Just flat out execution. Like I said, I didn’t execute enough. When your quarterback doesn’t execute enough in a tight ballgame, you’re not going to win.”

Evans had six catches for 132 receiving yards, repeatedly making big catches and making Falcons defensive backs look silly. Mayfield had averaged just 132.5 passing yards in the Bucs’ past four games and posted 277 passing yards against the Falcons – his best effort since Week 5 against the Seahawks.

“Mike Evans is one of the best to play this game,” said Falcons head coach Raheem Morris after the game. “I don’t know if you ever can say you slowed down Mike Evans. He’s a dog. We went out there and competed at a very high level. We made some plays and he made some plays. That was it. Nothing magical about it.”

The bigger issue overall may be the Buccaneers’ ceiling and whether or not they can make a deep run with this current team. They have proven to be competitive in the playoffs, narrowly losing games against the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders (each by one possession) in recent years.

However, they have failed to advance past the divisional round of the playoffs since the Super Bowl season and in the Bowles era and they haven’t won more than 10 games in a regular season since 2021.

The NFC South is getting better and it’s become rather obvious in recent weeks. The 7-6 Panthers are riding a solid ground game with Rico Dowdle which has led to even further steady play by young quarterback Bryce Young. The New Orleans Saints appear to have found their franchise quarterback in Tyler Shough and the Falcons have potential if their young QB, Penix, can stay healthy for a full season.

With that being said, this is still the Buccaneers’ division to win on paper – at least for the time being. No team comes close to matching their talent level in the division and for all of the positive results the Panthers have shown this season, they still rank 28th in scoring and 16th in defense.

That’s not going to get it done against the Buccaneers when the gloves are off.

Although the Buccaneers locker room was quiet after the game, there was no sense of panic – this is a veteran-filled squad that has been in this situation countless times before.

“We are totally in control of our destiny,” said Egbuka. “The NFC South is still up for grabs. You have key games coming up – we just have to execute and win those. We always in control of our destiny.”

The results will look better in the final three weeks for the Buccaneers. This is a team that has always narrowly won the division in recent years, whether it’s with eight or nine wins. It wasn’t until the end of the 2022 and 2023 seasons that Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South with eight and nine-win seasons.

They’ll aim to do the same thing this season – even if it doesn’t look pretty.