Oil Prices Rise 7% After Trump Signals Iran War Escalation and No Ceasefire Timeline

TLDR

• Oil jumped nearly 7%, with Brent crude trading above $107 and WTI near $106 per barrel
• Trump said the US will hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks
• US stock futures fell more than 0.8% after Trump’s Wednesday night address
• Trump said other countries should “take the lead” on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a ceasefire

Oil prices surged close to 7% on Thursday after President Trump said the US would escalate military operations against Iran over the next two to three weeks. The jump came after Trump’s prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday night.

Brent crude climbed to around $107.86 per barrel after earlier trading below $100. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to roughly $106.77 per barrel. Both benchmarks had opened lower on Thursday before reversing course.

US equity futures dropped more than 0.8% following the speech. Futures on the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq 100 all fell as of 10:15 p.m. ET Wednesday.

Trump told the nation that the US would strike Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks. He said the goal is to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Trump had previously told reporters on Tuesday that the US could exit Iran within two to three weeks, even without a formal agreement in place. He repeated that timeline in his Wednesday speech but did not signal a ceasefire was close.

Before the speech, Trump posted on social media that Iran’s “new regime president” had asked for a ceasefire. Iran’s Foreign Ministry quickly denied this, with state media reporting that Tehran had not sought a truce.

Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty

Trump said other nations should “take the lead” on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The 21-mile-wide waterway is a critical energy chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes.

The waterway remains disrupted with no clear timeline for when oil flows could return to normal. Investors remain uncertain about the supply outlook.

Oil Market and US Stocks

Trump also claimed the US is “totally independent of the Middle East” on oil. However, analysts have said that is not fully accurate given how oil is priced globally.

The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories rose by about 5.5 million barrels in the week ended March 27, which was higher than expected.

Stock futures remained under pressure as traders weighed the risk of a longer conflict and its effect on global oil supply.

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