Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

910 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
US midday market brief: Dow rallies over 400 points as Oracle’s AI boost propels S&P 500, Nasdaq higher

US midday market brief: Dow rallies over 400 points as Oracle’s AI boost propels S&P 500, Nasdaq higher

Wall Street extended its winning streak to four consecutive sessions on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing over 400 points by midday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both gaining ground.The rally, driven by optimism over a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December and renewed appetite for artificial intelligence stocks, found fresh fuel in strong earnings from Oracle and Dell Technologies.Traders are pricing in an 83% probability of a December rate cut, underpinning risk sentiment as markets head into the holiday-shortened trading week.​The broad-based momentum reflects investor confidence that the AI narrative remains intact despite earlier concerns about slowing growth and competitive pressures.Earnings beats from major technology firms continue to shift sentiment away from recession fears, with Dell’s record AI server demand providing particular encouragement for the infrastructure buildout that’s underpinning the sector’s comeback.​Oracle sparks tech gains, jobless data adds supportOracle shares climbed 4-5% on Wednesday after strategically positioning itself at the forefront of the AI infrastructure race.The software giant announced major partnerships with Nvidia and AMD to develop AI supercomputers for national labs, underscoring its role as a critical enabler in the AI economy.This move amplified broader tech enthusiasm, with Dell Technologies surging 6.7% after reporting record demand for AI servers and raising full-year guidance, a clear signal that corporate spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure remains robust.​Sentiment received an additional boost from fresher labor-market data. Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 fell to 216,000 from 222,000, beating economist expectations of 225,000 and signaling that layoffs are easing.The softer labor reading, combined with earlier retail-sales misses and producer-price data that remained within expectations, has reinforced the case for a December Fed rate cut.The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.03%, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.49%, as market participants repositioned ahead of the central bank’s December meeting.​Nvidia also added 2.5%, recovering from earlier losses related to competition from Alphabet ‘s AI chips.By midday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 had posted a 1.1% gain, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors trading in positive territory, led by technology, materials, and consumer staples.​Retail trades strong, volatility fadesConsumer discretionary stocks also participated in the rally.Urban Outfitters surged 11.7% after earnings that beat Wall Street expectations, while Robinhood jumped nearly 8% following its announcement of a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group to acquire LedgerX for prediction-markets trading.Deere & Company, however, dropped nearly 4% after issuing a downbeat outlook, citing tariff pressures, a reminder that trade policy remains a headwind for some industrial sectors.​The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” extended its decline for a fourth straight session, falling more than 5% as risk-off sentiment faded.This suggests institutional investors are increasingly comfortable rotating into equities and away from defensive positions.The Nasdaq has gained more than 4% so far this holiday-shortened week, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively.​International markets tracked the rally, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumping 1.9%, Germany’s DAX gaining 0.7%, and France’s CAC 40 rising 0.6%, as major exporters and technology counters benefited from the synchronized optimism.​What to watch next: The US equity market will be closedon  Thursday for Thanksgiving and operate on shortened hourson  Friday, ending at 1 PM E.T.Focus will shift to December Fed rate-cut odds as additional economic data arrives and corporate guidance updates shape expectations heading into 2026.​The post US midday market brief: Dow rallies over 400 points as Oracle's AI boost propels S&P 500, Nasdaq higher appeared first on Invezz

Author: Coinstats
The Daily: Robinhood takes aim at larger prediction-market share, Grayscale files to launch first-ever Zcash ETF, and more

The Daily: Robinhood takes aim at larger prediction-market share, Grayscale files to launch first-ever Zcash ETF, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Author: The Block
Prediction Markets Driving Expansion Plans at Robinhood

Prediction Markets Driving Expansion Plans at Robinhood

The post Prediction Markets Driving Expansion Plans at Robinhood appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Trading platform Robinhood said prediction markets have emerged as one of its fastest-growing product lines in terms of revenue, and it is set to expand the business with a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Since launching its prediction markets in March in partnership with prediction market platform Kalshi, nine billion contracts have been traded by more than one million users, Robinhood said in a statement on Tuesday.  JB Mackenzie, general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, said the platform was “seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum.” Robinhood said it plans to deepen its investment in prediction markets with a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Source: Robinhood “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers,” Mackenzie added. Robinhood derivatives exchange will launch in 2026 The exchange will have Robinhood as the controlling partner and market maker, and Susquehanna International Group as the day-one liquidity provider. As part of the venture, Robinhood will also acquire MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) licensed derivatives clearing organization and swap execution facility. Robinhood said the derivatives exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026.  Prediction market interest surging Prediction markets have become one of the hottest crypto offerings this year, with volumes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket holding firm amid increased mainstream media attention.   Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the US that operates under the oversight of the CFTC and has had a trading volume of $4.47 billion over the last 30 days, according to DeFi data aggregator DefiLlama. Prediction market Kalshi has recorded a trading volume of $4.47 billion over the last 30 days. Source: DefiLlama In comparison, Polymarket, a US-based cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Expands Prediction Market Reach With Launch of New Derivatives Platform

Robinhood Expands Prediction Market Reach With Launch of New Derivatives Platform

The post Robinhood Expands Prediction Market Reach With Launch of New Derivatives Platform appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood will be opening a new derivatives and futures exchange as part of its growth into the prediction markets. Besides this, the company has also made changes on other fronts as it eyes a larger share of this $9 billion market. Robinhood Doubles Down on Prediction Markets Expansion In a blog post published today, the exchange announced plans to expand its prediction markets with a dedicated futures and derivatives exchange. The new marketplace will operate independently under a joint venture owned by Robinhood. Susquehanna International Group will act as a day-one liquidity provider. Additional liquidity partners will be added in due course to boost its market depth. This step shows the company’s growth in the prediction markets. Users traded over nine billion contracts alone in its first year of service, involving over one million customers. The new exchange will also trade with other futures commission merchants. It plans to start operations in 2026. The company is seeing “strong customer demand” for its prediction based products, according to JB Mackenzie, Vice President at the firm. “Robinhood sees strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” he said. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.” The company posted net income of $556 million for Q3. This is more than triple the previous year’s figure. Meanwhile, total revenue hit a record $1.27 billion. This is inclusive of about $25 million from market activity through its partnership with Kalshi. Kalshi itself recently partnered with Coinbase. The exchange will handle USDC custody and settlement for its platform. Robinhood has also expanded the kinds of event contracts that can be traded on its app. This includes political, entertainment, and technology-related markets. Crypto Exchanges Push Into Prediction Markets The…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Revolutionary Prediction Market: Robinhood’s Bold Move with SIG to Dominate CFTC-Regulated Trading

Revolutionary Prediction Market: Robinhood’s Bold Move with SIG to Dominate CFTC-Regulated Trading

BitcoinWorld Revolutionary Prediction Market: Robinhood’s Bold Move with SIG to Dominate CFTC-Regulated Trading Have you heard about Robinhood’s latest game-changing move? The popular trading platform is diving deep into the prediction market space by partnering with Susquehanna International Group to create a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange. This strategic expansion could reshape how we bet on future events, from politics to economics, all while tapping into a multi-billion dollar opportunity. […] This post Revolutionary Prediction Market: Robinhood’s Bold Move with SIG to Dominate CFTC-Regulated Trading first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Author: bitcoinworld
Bernstein says Robinhood wants to leverage distribution edge for greater prediction-market share as Coinbase readies December move

Bernstein says Robinhood wants to leverage distribution edge for greater prediction-market share as Coinbase readies December move

The Bernstein analysts also expect Coinbase to unveil its own prediction-markets platform at its Dec. 17 event.

Author: The Block
Robinhood to Launch 2026 Derivatives Exchange, Expanding Its Fast-Growing Prediction Market

Robinhood to Launch 2026 Derivatives Exchange, Expanding Its Fast-Growing Prediction Market

The post Robinhood to Launch 2026 Derivatives Exchange, Expanding Its Fast-Growing Prediction Market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood is intensifying its revenue diversification by expanding the prediction market business, now highlighted as one of its fastest-growing income streams. In a Tuesday release, the platform confirmed plans to broaden its digital-market footprint with an upcoming futures and derivatives exchange and a dedicated clearinghouse. Since partnering with Kalshi in March to launch the prediction market, more than 1 million users have traded above 9 billion contracts, signaling robust demand and meaningful engagement. Looking ahead, Robinhood targets a 2026 derivatives exchange launch, majority-owned by Robinhood and supported by SIG as the initial liquidity provider. The company also disclosed its MIAXdx acquisition, a CFTC-licensed clearing organization and swap-execution facility, to strengthen execution and risk-management capabilities. The strategic push aims to elevate trading infrastructure, deliver innovative products, and deepen participation in crypto-adjacent markets while maintaining strict regulatory compliance. Source: https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/robinhood-to-launch-2026-derivatives-exchange-expanding-its-fast-growing-prediction-market

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Eyes 2026 Derivatives Exchange Launch as Prediction Markets Surge

Robinhood Eyes 2026 Derivatives Exchange Launch as Prediction Markets Surge

The post Robinhood Eyes 2026 Derivatives Exchange Launch as Prediction Markets Surge appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood prediction markets have seen nine billion contracts traded by over one million users since launching in March 2025, marking rapid growth in this innovative trading segment. The platform is expanding with a new futures and derivatives exchange set for 2026, enhancing offerings for retail investors interested in event-based betting. Robinhood’s prediction markets launched in […] Source: https://en.coinotag.com/robinhood-eyes-2026-derivatives-exchange-launch-as-prediction-markets-surge

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Coinbase Ventures 2026 Outlook: Focus on RWA Perpetual Contracts, Prop-AMM Trading Terminals, Next-Gen DeFi, and AI & Robotics (COIN)

Coinbase Ventures 2026 Outlook: Focus on RWA Perpetual Contracts, Prop-AMM Trading Terminals, Next-Gen DeFi, and AI & Robotics (COIN)

The post Coinbase Ventures 2026 Outlook: Focus on RWA Perpetual Contracts, Prop-AMM Trading Terminals, Next-Gen DeFi, and AI & Robotics (COIN) appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Coinbase Ventures’ 2026 Outlook targets funding at the intersection of real-world assets and DeFi. It outlines priority themes: RWA perpetual contracts; specialized trading platforms and terminals, including Prop-AMM and prediction-market terminals; next-generation DeFi with Perp Markets composability, uncollateralized borrowing, and on-chain privacy; and advances in artificial intelligence and robotics, such as humanoid data ecosystems, transparent proof, and secure on-chain AI development. The firm is actively sourcing teams aligned with these lanes and invites credible proposals. From an investment perspective, the Outlook signals selective capital deployment to projects with scalable architecture, robust risk controls, and cross-chain interoperability. For readers, it signals potential cadence for rounds and partnerships in asset markets, governance, and AI-enabled security. Stakeholders should monitor updates for co-development opportunities and diligence criteria, as credibility and traction in RWA liquidity and privacy-preserving tech become differentiators in a crowded funding landscape. Source: https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/coinbase-ventures-2026-outlook-focus-on-rwa-perpetual-contracts-prop-amm-trading-terminals-next-gen-defi-and-ai-robotics-coin

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets with Futures Exchange by 2026

Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets with Futures Exchange by 2026

The post Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets with Futures Exchange by 2026 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Points: Robinhood’s prediction market expansion, futures exchange launch, and MIAXdx acquisition. Launch of derivatives exchange in 2026. Robinhood’s prediction markets generate $100M annually in under one year. Robinhood has announced its prediction market, a key growth area since March, is driving plans for a futures and derivatives exchange, marking significant expansion in financial tech services. This expansion reflects Robinhood’s financial success and strategic growth, impacting its market position and influencing broader crypto trading activities, particularly in ETH and BTC transactions. Robinhood Reaches Nine Billion Contracts Milestone with Kalshi Robinhood, in partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi, reported over nine billion contracts traded by one million users since March. As demand grows, Robinhood plans to launch a futures and derivatives exchange in 2026, acquiring MIAXdx for strengthened infrastructure. Robinhood’s expansion includes establishing a derivatives clearinghouse, reflecting its ambition to cement a stronger presence in the market. The derivatives exchange aims to deepen Robinhood’s presence in the prediction market with Susquehanna International Group as the initial liquidity provider. Coincu’s research indicates that Robinhood’s expansion initiatives could prompt broader financial participation. The infrastructure build-up and focus on regulatory compliance illustrate a shift towards a comprehensive financial ecosystem. This strategy may position Robinhood as a key player in market innovation, offering diversified financial products to a growing user base. “Prediction markets are on fire,” Vlad Tenev, Robinhood’s CEO, emphasized, highlighting their rapid growth. The prediction markets have become the company’s fastest-growing revenue stream, generating $100 million annually. Vlad Tenev also noted record transaction volumes and user engagement, as Robinhood attracted 2.5 million new funded customers over the past year. Contract Volume Doubles Quarterly, Driving Financial Engagement Did you know? Robinhood’s venture into prediction markets saw contract volume doubling every quarter since its launch, solidifying its rapid growth trajectory in fintech sectors. Ethereum(ETH),…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews