Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

888 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Pulling In $1 Billion Monthly as State Regulators Loom

Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Pulling In $1 Billion Monthly as State Regulators Loom

The post Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Pulling In $1 Billion Monthly as State Regulators Loom appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Kalshi reached $1 billion in monthly volume and now dominates 62% of the global prediction market industry, surpassing Polymarket’s 37% share. Four states including Massachusetts have filed lawsuits claiming Kalshi operates as an unlicensed sportsbook, with Massachusetts seeking to permanently bar the platform. Kalshi operates under federal CFTC regulation as a designated contract market, arguing this preempts state gambling laws that require separate licensing. Prediction market Kalshi just topped $1 billion in monthly volume as state regulators nip at its heels with lawsuits alleging that it’s an unregistered sports betting platform. “Despite being limited to only American customers, Kalshi has now risen to dominate the global prediction market industry,” the company said in a press release. “New data scraped from publicly available activity metrics details this rise.” The publicly available data appears on a Dune Analytics dashboard that’s been tracking prediction market notional volume. The data show that Kalshi now accounts for roughly 62% of global prediction market volume, Polymarket for 37%, and the rest split between Limitless and Myriad, the prediction market owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan. Trading volume on Kalshi skyrocketed in August, not coincidentally at the start of the NFL season and as the prediction market pushes further into sports.  But regulators in Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey have all issued cease-and-desist orders, arguing Kalshi’s event contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting. Each case has spilled into federal court, with judges issuing preliminary rulings but no final decisions yet. Last week, Massachusetts went further, filing a lawsuit that calls Kalshi’s sports contracts “illegal and unsafe sports wagering.” The 43-page Massachusetts lawsuit seeks to stop the company from allowing state residents on its platform—much the way Coinbase has had to do with its staking offerings in parts of the United States. Massachusetts Attorney General…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
The $40 Million ‘Free Money’ Glitch in Crypto Prediction Markets

The $40 Million ‘Free Money’ Glitch in Crypto Prediction Markets

The post The $40 Million ‘Free Money’ Glitch in Crypto Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Researchers found $40 million in “risk-free” profits from mispriced markets on Polymarket in one year. Prices on some markets didn’t add up to 100%, letting traders lock in guaranteed gains. The same inefficiencies likely exist on other platforms like Myriad and Kalshi, though arbitrageurs help correct them. A new academic paper suggests there’s been a steady stream of “free money” lying around on Polymarket—and smart traders have been scooping it up. The paper, Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets, is the most detailed look yet at how mispricing creeps into crypto’s most popular prediction platform. The researchers combed through a year of data, from April 2024 to April 2025, and found thousands of instances where market prices simply didn’t add up. In some cases, the prices of “Yes” and “No” shares in a single market didn’t sum to one dollar as they theoretically should, creating a risk-free profit for anyone quick enough to pounce.  In other cases, the mispricing was more subtle, involving logically related markets. For example, a market on “Trump wins the presidency” might trade at very different odds than “Republican wins the presidency,” even though those outcomes are tightly linked. By buying and selling combinations of these contracts, a savvy trader could lock in a profit no matter what happens. The researchers estimate more than $40 million in profits have already been pulled from the system by arbitrageurs, traders who specialize in sniffing out and exploiting these kinds of inconsistencies. Far from being a theoretical curiosity, this is a live and lucrative business model. Is this pattern true across all prediction markets? What’s striking is how common these opportunities are. The study found more than 7,000 markets with measurable mispricing, many in highly liquid, closely watched contracts. “Prediction markets are often treated…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Let insiders trade – Blockworks

Let insiders trade – Blockworks

The post Let insiders trade – Blockworks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, subscribe ​​“The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” — Gordon Gekko, Wall Street Ten months ago, FBI agents raided Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan apartment, ostensibly in search of evidence that the prediction market he founded, Polymarket, had illegally allowed US residents to place bets on the US election. Two weeks ago, the CFTC gave Polymarket the green light to allow those very same US residents to place bets on whatever they like. This is quite the turn of events — and it’s not just about elections or politics. With its US government seal of approval in hand, Polymarket is reportedly raising capital at a valuation of $9 billion — a reflection of the growing belief that prediction markets will be used for much more than betting on elections once every four years. Instead, proponents say prediction markets can provide a real service to the world by providing it with better information about nearly everything. I think they might, too — but only if insiders are free to participate. Yesterday, for example, Polymarket announced new betting markets on company earnings reports, with a promise that it would improve the information that investors have to work with.  Instead of waiting three months to find out how a company is faring, investors could simply watch the odds on Polymarket.  If the probability of an earnings beat is rising, for example, investors would know at a glance that things are going well. But that will only happen if enough of the people betting actually know how things are going. Relying on the wisdom of crowds to magically discern how a business is doing won’t add much incremental knowledge to the world; everyone’s guesses are unlikely to average out to the truth. If…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
VanEck Targets Stablecoins & Next-Gen ICOs

VanEck Targets Stablecoins & Next-Gen ICOs

The post VanEck Targets Stablecoins & Next-Gen ICOs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee because the firms shaping crypto’s future are not just building products, but also trying to reshape how capital flows. Crypto News of the Day: VanEck Maps Next Frontier of Crypto Venture Investing VanEck, a Wall Street player known for financial “firsts,” is pushing that legacy into Web3. The firsts include pioneering US gold funds and launching one of the earliest spot Bitcoin ETFs. Sponsored Sponsored “Financial instruments have always been a kind of tokenization. From seashells to traveler’s checks, from relational databases to today’s on-chain assets. You could even joke that VanEck’s first gold mutual funds were the original ‘tokenized gold,’” Juan C. Lopez, General Partner at VanEck Ventures, told BeInCrypto. That same instinct drives the firm’s venture bets. Lopez said VanEck goes beyond writing checks and brings the full weight of the firm. This extends from regulatory proximity to product experiments to founders building the next phase of crypto infrastructure. Asked about key investment priorities, Lopez highlighted stablecoins. “We care deeply about three questions: How do we accelerate stablecoin ubiquity? What will users want to do with them once highly distributed? And what net new assets can we construct now that we have sophisticated market infrastructure?” Lopez added. However, VanEck is not limiting itself to the hottest narrative, acknowledging that decentralized finance (DeFi) is having a renaissance. The VanEck executive also noted that success will depend on new approaches to identity and programmable compliance layered on public blockchains. Backing Legion With A New Model for ICOs Sponsored Sponsored That compliance-first angle explains VanEck Ventures’ recent co-lead of Legion’s $5 million seed round alongside Brevan Howard. Legion aims to reinvent token fundraising by making early-stage access…

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Kalshi Launches KalshiEco to Boost Prediction Market With Solana and Base

Kalshi Launches KalshiEco to Boost Prediction Market With Solana and Base

The post Kalshi Launches KalshiEco to Boost Prediction Market With Solana and Base appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. On Wednesday, Kalshi introduces the KalshiEco hub with the support from Solana and Base to bolster prediction market growth. The initiative would bolster selected builders, traders, and creators with hands-on support, including grant funding, engineering assistance, referral programs, etc.  Kalshi faces legal scrutiny in Massachusetts as the firm is accused of running unlicensed sports betting under the guise of a prediction market. Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market operator, is expanding its operations into the broader trading and builder community by introducing KalshiEco, a program that the operator is experimenting with to serve developers, traders, and creators trying on-chain and off-chain prediction market projects. The action is happening at a time when the company is under increased legal scrutiny, such as in a recent case in Massachusetts, which alleged that the company was running what state regulators term as an illegal form of sports betting. KalshiEco Ecosystem Growth The KalshiEco program is designed such that it establishes feedback between the builders and audiences. Developers are also encouraged to release new applications; creators, on the other hand, promote those tools to a wider audience, which in turn is likely to draw more attention and further development of the project. This cycle has been positioned by the company as a growth flywheel that is meant to ensure that momentum is maintained within the ecosystem. Among the selected participants, various incentives are being offered as part of the initiative. Among them, there is direct funding in the form of grants, verified badges on the social media X, individual referral programs, and engineering-specific support of projects that need more technical rigor. Other benefits are competitions in trade, branded products, and continuous community self-identification. These resources are being made by the company more as a working aid than as a marketing gift and this is…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi launches KalshiEco hub with Solana and Base to drive prediction markets

Kalshi launches KalshiEco hub with Solana and Base to drive prediction markets

The post Kalshi launches KalshiEco hub with Solana and Base to drive prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Kalshi has launched the KalshiEco Hub in partnership with Solana and Base. The initiative aims to innovate and advance prediction markets using blockchain technology. Kalshi launched KalshiEco hub today in partnership with Solana and Base to advance prediction market innovation. The prediction market platform announced the new initiative through its social media channels. The hub represents Kalshi’s expansion into blockchain-based prediction market development alongside the Solana network and Coinbase’s Base layer-2 solution. Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. The company has previously focused on traditional prediction markets covering topics ranging from political elections to economic indicators. The partnership brings together Kalshi’s regulatory expertise with Solana’s blockchain infrastructure and Base’s layer-2 scaling technology. Base serves as Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network designed to reduce transaction costs and increase processing speed. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-launches-kalshieco-hub-with-solana-and-base-to-drive-prediction-markets/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi exec submits Hyperliquid improvement proposal to solve prediction market deployment challenges

Kalshi exec submits Hyperliquid improvement proposal to solve prediction market deployment challenges

The post Kalshi exec submits Hyperliquid improvement proposal to solve prediction market deployment challenges appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Four authors submitted Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 4 (HIP-4) on Sept. 16, introducing “Event Perpetuals” to enable prediction markets on the platform’s order book infrastructure. The proposal lists Kalshi’s head of crypto, John Wang, among its four co-authors. The text addresses limitations in Hyperliquid’s existing HIP-3 builder-deployed perpetuals for prediction market use cases. The current infrastructure requires continuous oracle updates and limits price changes to 1% per tick, making binary event resolution impractical. Event Perpetuals’ goal is to eliminate continuous oracle feeds and funding payments, with prices determined entirely by trading activity. The contracts settle with binary payoffs reflecting market-implied probabilities between 0 and 1, resolving instantly to either outcome upon event conclusion. The proposal demonstrates current limitations through NFL betting scenarios, where sportsbook odds update as step functions during games. Under HIP-3 constraints, settling a market from neutral (0.5) to zero probability would require 50 minutes due to tick limitations, creating arbitrage opportunities for informed traders. The attached oracle settling chart illustrates the asymmetric resolution problem, showing rapid settlement toward 1.0 but gradual decay toward 0, highlighting infrastructure challenges that motivated the new proposal. Oracle price settlement shows asymmetric timing, with upward movement from 0.5 to 1.0 occurring rapidly while downward settlement requires approximately 50 minutes. Image: HIP-4 Auction mechanism for fair price discovery Event Perpetuals launch through single-price clearing auctions lasting approximately 15 minutes. The system evaluates all candidate prices to maximize matched volume, with tie-breaking favoring minimal imbalance and prices closest to 50%. The clearing mechanism diagram shows bid and ask distributions across price levels, with the system calculating optimal clearing prices that balance supply and demand. Auction mechanism diagram shows bid-ask order matching across price levels, with optimal clearing price of $0.50 maximizing matched volume at 270 contracts. Image: HIP-4 Orders execute uniformly at the determined opening…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut as Futures and Prediction Markets Show Near-Certain Trim

Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut as Futures and Prediction Markets Show Near-Certain Trim

The post Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut as Futures and Prediction Markets Show Near-Certain Trim appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. According to the CME Fedwatch tool and prediction markets, traders are betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim rates tomorrow when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathers. On top of that, Stephen Miran, a key economic adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, snagged Senate confirmation on Sept. 15, 2025, to join the Federal Reserve’s […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/markets-brace-for-fed-rate-cut-as-futures-and-prediction-markets-show-near-certain-trim/

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Kashi Is Ready To Fight For Prediction Markets Amid New Lawsuit

Kashi Is Ready To Fight For Prediction Markets Amid New Lawsuit

The post Kashi Is Ready To Fight For Prediction Markets Amid New Lawsuit appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction market platform Kalshi has vowed to fight a new lawsuit from the US state of Massachusetts, which accuses the company of offering unlicensed sports betting to residents. “We are proud to be the company that has pioneered this technology and stand ready to defend it once again in a court of law,” a spokesperson for Kalshi told Cointelegraph on Friday. “Prediction markets are a critical innovation of the 21st century, and all Americans should be able to access them,” Kalshi added.  Kalshi is prepared to fight amid other legal challenges The civil lawsuit, filed on Friday by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in Suffolk County Superior Court, alleged that Kalshi disguises sports wagering as “event contracts” and violates the state’s strict gambling laws. Source: Dustin Gouker “Kalshi is violating the Commonwealth’s strict sports wagering laws and regulations by offering unlicensed sports wagering to Massachusetts residents,” the filing stated.  It further claimed that as of May 2025, more than three-quarters of Kalshi’s trading volume comes from sports — a larger share, the filing said, than industry giants DraftKings or FanDuel. However, the Kalshi spokesperson said that Massachusetts’s regulators chose legal action over directly resolving the matter: “Rather than engage in dialogue with Kalshi as many other states have done, Massachusetts is trying to block Kalshi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws and ideas.” Kalshi argues that it is regulated by the CFTC Kalshi has previously argued that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates it at the federal level and does not fall under state gambling jurisdiction. It has received cease-and-desist orders from other states, including Arizona, Montana, Ohio, and Illinois. Related: Polymarket partners with Chainlink to improve market resolution accuracy The case comes as blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly preparing to launch in the US. Citing sources familiar with…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation With US Launch Plans

Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation With US Launch Plans

The post Polymarket Targets $10B Valuation With US Launch Plans appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly preparing a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion, highlighting the surge of investor interest in prediction markets and crypto ventures. Citing sources familiar with the conversation, Business Insider reported Friday that Polymarket is exploring re-entering the US while seeking new funding that could more than triple its June valuation of $1 billion. One investor valued the company at up to $10 billion, the report said. As Cointelegraph reported, Polymarket was raising a $200 million round in June led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, an early backer of companies including OpenAI, Paxos and Palantir. Polymarket, a decentralized platform that allows users to trade event outcomes without a centralized bookmaker, gained prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, where its markets correctly anticipated Donald Trump’s victory. Polymarket activity skyrocketed during the US presidential election, based on monthly active traders. Source: Dune The company was barred from serving US users in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July, however, it acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX, which could pave the way for a regulated return to the US market. In September, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, granting relief from certain federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the decision effectively gives the platform “the green light to go live in the USA.” Source: Shayne Coplan Related: Trump Jr. joins Polymarket board as prediction market eyes US comeback Blockchain prediction markets gain steam The move comes as rival platform Kalshi is reportedly nearing a $5 billion funding round, according to The Information. That follows a Paradigm-led raise in June, when the company secured $185 million at a $2 billion valuation. Kalshi’s recent momentum stems partly from a 2024…

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