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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket

El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket

The post El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele called attention to prediction markets amid increasing bets that the country’s Bitcoin holdings will hit $1 billion by year-end. Bukele took to X on Wednesday to tweet about Kalshi’s prediction market, which shows increasing betting activity on El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings hitting $1 billion by late 2025. “I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele said, as the odds of El Salvador hitting a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone before November jumped from 20% to 38% on Kalshi. Soon after Bukele’s post, rival platform Polymarket listed a similar bet, where the odds of a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 stood at 43%. Kalshi tracking the odds since mid-August Kalshi’s prediction market on El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been active since mid-August, with the “before December 2025” bet holding near 24% and “before November 2025” hovering around 18% until the last few days. Following the spike to as high as 38%, the “before November 2025” bet dropped to 27%, while the “before December 2025” bet hovered around 35%. Kalshi’s prediction market on “When will El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings be worth $1 billion?” Source: Kalshi While Kalshi had been tracking the odds of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 billion for several days, rival platform Polymarket only introduced a similar market following Bukele’s tweet. Related: Bitcoin investment banks coming to El Salvador — Gov regulator “New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X just hours after Bukele highlighted Kalshi’s market on Thursday. Polymarket introduced a betting market “Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by…?” on Wednesday. Source: Polymarket Cointelegraph approached Kalshi and Polymarket for comments regarding the market listing policies, but had not received any responses by the time of publication. Controversy around…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/29

CFTC to Surveil Crypto, Prediction Markets Using Nasdaq Platform

CFTC to Surveil Crypto, Prediction Markets Using Nasdaq Platform

The post CFTC to Surveil Crypto, Prediction Markets Using Nasdaq Platform appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief The CFTC will start using Nasdaq’s Market Surveillance platform to enhance its ability to detect fraud and market manipulation in crypto and production markets. The shift comes as lawmakers mull the CLARITY Act. A White House report recently recommended that the CFTC impose requirements on reporting market data for certain crypto firms. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is stepping up efforts to surveil financial markets, tapping technology from Nasdaq to gain a more granular view of crypto transactions, according to a press release published by the regulator on Wednesday. Nasdaq’s Market Surveillance platform, which covers a dozen asset classes, including digital assets and prediction markets, represents a significant upgrade, the CFTC said, as it moves to replace its “‘90s-era legacy system” for detecting illicit behavior among market participants. Prediction markets have been buzzy, with the president’s son joining Polymarket’s advisory board on Tuesday. Still, a Nasdaq spokesperson told Decrypt that prediction markets mirror derivatives that the CFTC has regulated since the agency was established in 1974. “Prediction markets operate in the same way as most derivative markets, with similar potential for market abuse and manipulation,” the spokesperson said. “The technology can therefore be adapted to serve almost all forms of event-based markets.”  At the same time, the CFTC acknowledged that markets have changed rapidly in recent years, with digital infrastructure providing round-the-clock trading. “The growth in both traditional and new markets and products, combined with innovations in market structure, such as the launch of continuous trading hours, require increasingly sophisticated tools to prevent and detect potential market abuse,” the CFTC said. The shift also comes as U.S. lawmakers mull the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive piece of crypto legislation that would establish jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC.  The bill was passed in the U.S. House…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/28

Ex-Polymarket team launches onchain prediction markets with $15M round

Ex-Polymarket team launches onchain prediction markets with $15M round

The post Ex-Polymarket team launches onchain prediction markets with $15M round appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Former team members behind prediction market platform Polymarket have launched a new venture, The Clearing Company. It secured a $15 million seed round led by Union Square Ventures, according to an announcement on Wednesday. Other investors include Haun Ventures, Variant, Coinbase Ventures, Compound, Rubik, Earl Grey, Cursor Capital, Asylum and several angel backers. Co-founder Toni Gemayel emphasized that while prediction markets have existed for centuries, the internet age makes their collective intelligence more powerful. “Polls are too slow and rife with bias,” he wrote, adding that markets incentivize honesty because being wrong carries a real cost. Scaling, he said, will require making markets “fun to create, seamless to trade and supported by novel structures that unlock liquidity.” The startup aims to build onchain, permissionless prediction markets designed to meet regulatory standards while remaining accessible to retail users. Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, producing collective forecasts with financial incentives for accuracy. While platforms such as Polymarket have operated in regulatory gray areas, The Clearing Company suggests that it is positioning itself as a compliant alternative with transparent infrastructure and liquidity mechanisms. Union Square Ventures, which has previously invested in Web3 firms including Coinbase and Uniswap, is betting that a regulated approach could make decentralized forecasting tools mainstream. The company has not disclosed a launch timeline for its platform but emphasized its focus on designing products that balance simplicity with compliance. This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor Jeffrey Albus before publication. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Source: https://blockworks.co/news/onchain-prediction-market-funding

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/28

Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

The post Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate Skip to content Home Crypto News Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate Source: https://bitcoinworld.co.in/prediction-markets-accuracy/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/27

Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

BitcoinWorld Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, where information spreads at lightning speed, discerning truth from speculation is crucial. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently dropped a fascinating insight, suggesting that prediction markets are surprisingly more accurate than even professional media. This bold claim invites us to explore how these innovative platforms might reshape our understanding of future events. Why Are Prediction Markets Astonishingly More Accurate? Vitalik Buterin’s argument is rooted in a fundamental principle: incentives. He highlights that participants in prediction markets face a direct financial consequence for incorrect forecasts. Unlike traditional media, which often prioritizes sensationalism, or even token governance votes where there’s no penalty for a wrong choice, prediction market participants put their money where their mouth is. Skin in the Game: When you bet on an outcome, you have a strong incentive to research thoroughly and make an informed decision. Financial Penalty: Incorrect predictions lead to monetary losses, encouraging a more disciplined and reality-based approach. Collective Wisdom: The aggregated decisions of many financially incentivized participants often yield a highly accurate probability. This ‘skin in the game’ mechanism is what, according to Buterin, helps investors stay firmly grounded in reality. It prevents the kind of rampant overhyping or baseless speculation often seen elsewhere. Instead, it fosters an environment where genuine probability and objective assessment take precedence. The Power of Incentives: How Prediction Markets Keep Investors Grounded Buterin articulated his views on Farcaster, emphasizing the stark contrast between prediction markets and other information sources. He noted that professional media and social media platforms often lack a direct accountability mechanism for the accuracy of their reports or forecasts. This can lead to a landscape filled with opinions that aren’t necessarily tethered to factual outcomes. Consider the difference: Media: Journalists and pundits might face reputational risk, but rarely a direct financial loss for an inaccurate prediction. Social Media: Influencers can spread misinformation with little to no consequence. Token Governance: While important, votes don’t typically penalize participants for choices that don’t pan out. In contrast, every trade within a prediction market is a statement of belief backed by capital. If that belief proves wrong, the capital is lost. This powerful feedback loop encourages rational thought and discourages emotional decision-making, leading to a remarkably precise collective forecast. Trusting Prediction Markets Over General Sentiment: Vitalik’s Stance Vitalik Buterin himself stated that he personally finds the probabilities presented by prediction markets to be more trustworthy than being swayed by general sentiment or the prevailing narrative. This is a significant endorsement from a highly respected figure in the crypto space, underscoring the potential for these platforms to serve as a superior source of information. The beauty of these markets lies in their ability to distill complex information into a simple, actionable probability. When a market shows an 80% chance of an event occurring, it’s not just a guess; it’s a reflection of thousands of participants’ aggregated, financially-backed assessments. This makes them incredibly valuable tools for: Forecasting Elections: Often outperforming traditional polls. Predicting Product Success: Gauging public interest and viability. Anticipating Global Events: Providing real-time, dynamic probabilities. What Challenges Do Prediction Markets Face? While the accuracy of prediction markets is compelling, it’s also important to acknowledge their limitations and challenges. These platforms, while powerful, are not without hurdles that need careful consideration for their widespread adoption and optimal function. Key challenges include: Liquidity: Smaller markets might not have enough participants or capital to generate truly robust probabilities. Regulatory Uncertainty: The legal landscape for these markets is still evolving in many jurisdictions, creating barriers to entry. Market Manipulation: Although less likely due to financial incentives, the potential for manipulation in illiquid markets exists. Ethical Concerns: Markets on sensitive topics (e.g., assassinations) raise significant ethical debates. Despite these challenges, the core mechanism of incentivized accuracy remains a powerful force, suggesting a bright future for these tools as they mature and gain broader acceptance. Addressing these issues will be key to unlocking their full potential. Vitalik Buterin’s assertion that prediction markets offer superior accuracy to professional media or social media is a powerful statement. By aligning financial incentives with truthful forecasting, these platforms create a unique environment where collective wisdom triumphs over hype and speculation. As we navigate an increasingly complex information landscape, the disciplined, reality-grounded insights offered by prediction markets could become an indispensable tool for informed decision-making. Their potential to cut through the noise and provide clear, probability-driven forecasts is truly transformative. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 1. What are prediction markets? Prediction markets are platforms where users can bet on the outcome of future events. Participants buy and sell shares representing specific outcomes, and the market price of these shares reflects the collective probability of that event occurring. 2. Why does Vitalik Buterin believe prediction markets are more accurate? Buterin argues that prediction markets are more accurate because participants have ‘skin in the game.’ They lose money if their predictions are incorrect, creating a strong financial incentive to research thoroughly and make accurate forecasts, unlike traditional media or social media where there’s less direct accountability. 3. How do prediction markets differ from traditional media in terms of accuracy? Traditional media often faces pressures for sensationalism or clicks, and journalists typically don’t incur direct financial penalties for inaccurate reports. Prediction markets, however, directly penalize incorrect forecasts through monetary loss, leading to more grounded and reality-checked probabilities. 4. What role do incentives play in prediction markets? Incentives are central to the accuracy of prediction markets. The financial reward for correct predictions and the penalty for incorrect ones drive participants to be more rational, research-oriented, and less susceptible to emotional biases or hype, thus contributing to more reliable collective forecasts. 5. Are there any downsides or challenges to using prediction markets? Yes, prediction markets face challenges such as ensuring sufficient liquidity, navigating complex regulatory landscapes, and mitigating potential for market manipulation, especially in smaller markets. Ethical concerns can also arise depending on the event being predicted. Did Vitalik Buterin’s insights on prediction markets spark your interest? Share this article with your network and join the conversation about the future of accurate forecasting! Your friends and followers will appreciate this valuable perspective. To learn more about the latest prediction markets trends, explore our article on key developments shaping decentralized finance market insights. This post Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team

Author: Coinstats

2025/08/27

Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment

Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment

The post Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Donald Trump Jr. has invested in blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket through his venture firm 1789 Capital. As part of the deal, Trump Jr. will join Polymarket’s advisory board, according to a press release. The investment comes as part of a push by 1789 Capital into crypto-related infrastructure and alternative finance tools. According to Axios, 1789 committed tens of millions of dollars to Polymarket and had been in discussions with the company for the past 18 months. Polymarket, which allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, court rulings and geopolitical conflicts, has seen sharp growth in user activity. During the last U.S. election cycle alone, the platform has processed more than $8 billion in bets. That volume has put it ahead of major online sports betting operators like FanDuel, DraftKings and Betfair in terms of traffic. The company recently closed in on a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, pushing its valuation to $1 billion. While Polymarket currently blocks U.S.-based users from participating in its betting markets due to regulatory restrictions, its recent acquisition of derivatives exchange QCEX could change that. QCEX holds a license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which opens the door for Polymarket to offer legally compliant prediction markets to American users in the future. Prediction markets — where users stake funds on the outcomes of events — have drawn renewed attention for their accuracy and speed compared to traditional polling or punditry. In the run-up to elections or court rulings, these markets often serve as real-time gauges of public sentiment and risk assessment. The investment aligns with 1789 Capital’s stated mission to back technologies that reinforce “American dynamism” — a term increasingly used by conservative venture capital circles to describe a return to domestic…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/27

Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence

Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence

The post Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The controversial company has unveiled its new head of crypto, influencer John Wang. Prediction market Kalshi revealed its new head of crypto today, a trading and crypto influencer known as John Wang, who is tasked with “bringing new crypto markets to life, growing Kalshi’s builder ecosystem, and leading the push onchain,” according to an article Wang published on X. Prediction markets have been a hot sector in crypto over the last few months, with Wang leading the push on social media and spending the last few weeks bullposting prediction markets. In a particularly viral tweet on Aug. 18, he said, “Mark my words: prediction markets will be 10x bigger than memecoins.” Kalshi also recently expanded its sports betting markets through a new partnership with Robinhood. The activation enables National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) American football betting markets on Robinhood, facilitated by Kalshi. Market leader Polymarket, on the other hand, announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s X in June, making the decentralized prediction market the official partner of X. Controversial Past Polymarket has been the crypto-native favorite among prediction markets since activity on the platform exploded leading up to the 2024 presidential election. It’s gearing up for an even bigger 2025, as Polymarket plots a return to the United States after acquiring a compliant platform through a $112 million deal in July. Part of the favoritism also lies in crypto-natives’ general disdain for Kalshi and some of the company’s previous tactics. Niko Kampouris, a social media specialist at Uniswap, called out Kalshi after the news broke today, saying, “Sorry, but Kalshi lost all respect after their coordinated polymarket propaganda tour during the election cycle. They tried destroying something that was built by one of our own. Don’t really care who they hire to help save face.…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/26

Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies

Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies

The post Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin weighed in on the growing debate over prediction markets, warning that the absence of interest-bearing mechanisms makes them unappealing for risk-averse traders. In a post on Farcaster, Buterin said the lack of yield forces participants to sacrifice guaranteed returns elsewhere, such as the 4% annual yield available on dollars, just to take part. He suggested that once markets solve the interest gap, “lots of hedging use cases” could emerge, driving greater volumes and adoption. Critics see structural flaws Buterin’s comments came as online discussion flared over the risks and potential of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The exchange was sparked by an essay from former quant trader Agustin Lebron, who argued that prediction markets are structurally flawed and could destabilize society by encouraging reflexive feedback loops between bets and real-world outcomes. Lebron contended that prediction markets lack the diverse mix of hedgers, speculators, and institutional investors that underpin traditional financial markets. He argued that without hedgers transferring risk, prediction markets devolve into contests between sharp traders and retail gamblers, leaving little room for sustainable liquidity. Supporters push back His critique drew a detailed rebuttal from pseudonymous trader @TomJrSr, who disclosed financial interests in the sector. In a lengthy response, he argued that Lebron’s view underestimates the long-term potential for prediction markets to provide valuable hedging tools for businesses, industries, and individuals exposed to real-world risks. He wrote: “Airlines face hurricanes, utilities face unpredictable temperatures, and energy firms face shifting OPEC quotas.” He further suggested that prediction markets could offer a cheaper and more direct way to hedge against such events than existing financial instruments. With Buterin highlighting missing yield and both sides of the debate staking out starkly different positions, prediction markets appear caught between two futures: one as a niche form of speculative entertainment, the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/26

Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets

Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets

The post Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets need yield integration to attract hedging and mainstream adoption. Ethereum analysts eye $7,500–$15,650 targets as Fibonacci levels fuel optimism. Institutional demand and network strength bolster ETH’s path toward $10,000 cycle highs. Ethereum is once again at the center of intense debate, as its founder raises questions about the future of prediction markets while analysts chart ambitious price targets. The discussion underscores how both structural improvements in financial products and technical market momentum could define Ethereum’s trajectory in the coming cycle. Prediction Markets and Hedging Potential Vitalik Buterin has highlighted a major limitation of today’s prediction markets. He noted that because they don’t offer any yield, they are unattractive for serious hedging. With U.S. dollars earning nearly 4% annually, traders are unwilling to lock up capital in products that yield nothing.  Consequently, prediction markets have struggled to expand into mainstream risk management. However, once developers solve this gap, significant transaction volume could follow.  Related: Ethereum Leads a Market-Wide Rally After Powell’s “Dovish” Jackson Hole Speech Moreover, the creation of interest-enabled platforms would allow institutions and retail users alike to hedge economic risks far more effectively. This shift could unlock demand from new participants, thereby accelerating growth across the decentralized finance ecosystem. Vitalik：若预测市场提供利息将推动交易量增长，涌现大量对冲用例 关于预测市场的好坏之争，以太坊创始人 Vitalik 表示，“目前主流的预测市场大多不提供利息，这使得它们在对冲方面非常没有吸引力，因为参与其中就意味着要牺牲美元 4%… pic.twitter.com/W3PnImM2Sw — PANews (@PANewsCN) August 25, 2025 Price Momentum and Technical Outlook Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price performance continues to spark optimism. ETH is currently valued at $4,608.22 after a recent 3.39% daily decline. Despite short-term volatility, the asset has still gained 8.25% over the past week. Analysts argue that this rally reflects Ethereum’s break above long-term resistance zones.  Mags, a well-followed market analyst, pointed out that in the previous cycle, ETH delivered a 211% rally after breaching its all-time high. Applying similar Fibonacci extension levels, he projects a potential peak near $15,650.  Even if…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets

Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets

The post Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, has brought attention to a significant obstacle facing prediction markets: the lack of interest payments. In a recent communication on Farcaster, Buterin emphasized that participants in these markets miss a lucrative annual yield of approximately 4% from dollar-based assets. Continue Reading:Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets Source: https://en.bitcoinhaber.net/buterin-spotlights-missed-opportunities-in-prediction-markets

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

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